Ukraine capable of stopping Russia with proper Western support – ISW

"Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped," the report states.

In particular, Ukraine forced Russian troops to withdraw their units from the Kyiv region and other areas of northern Ukraine in April 2022, liberated a significant part of the Kharkiv region during the counteroffensive in September and October 2022, and compelled Russia to withdraw from the western bank of the Kherson region in November 2022.

ISW analysts note that Ukrainian forces are "disproportionately high relative to the amount of gains," forcing the enemy to spend time, manpower, and equipment on exhausting offensive operations.

The Institute also recalled that Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian offensives in the northern Kharkiv region and the Sumy region in spring 2024 and in January 2025, respectively.

According to analysts, Ukraine forced Russia into a positional war, depriving it of the ability to conduct operational maneuvers.

"Timely and sufficient Western military assistance and weapon sales to Ukraine, in concert with strong US and other Western economic measures against Russia, can enable Ukraine to stop Russian battlefield advances cold, especially if Ukrainian forces leverage their well-developed fortifications in the Donetsk region," ISW writes.

Despite extensive attempts to capture all of the Donetsk region by the end of this year, the latest data indicate that this deadline for the Russian forces has been pushed to March 2026.

And recently, ISW analysts noted that if the Russian army continues advancing at its current pace, it will not be able to achieve full control of the Donetsk region before August 2027.