UK intelligence gives forecast of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine
Photo: Shaheds raids will be constant and massive (RBC-Ukraine collage)
Russia has been able to increase the production of kamikaze drones and has increased the intensity of its strikes against Ukraine. It is difficult to solve this problem soon, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.
2,000 kamikaze drones were launched by Russia against Ukraine in October 2024, about 700 more than in September and a significant increase for the third consecutive month.
According to UK intelligence, due to ongoing Russian investment in a range of unmanned aerial vehicles, diversification of supplies, and expansion of launch sites, the pace of strikes has been steadily increasing since mid-2024.
During the first week of November, Russian strike rates remained high and in line with the last weeks of October.
“With launch sites being reasonably simple and easy to re-establish if targeted, should production remain uninhibited, the primary limiting factor for Russian OWA UAV operations is likely human resource relative to launch capacity. It is likely that the high figures seen through September and October to date will become normal,” the UK Ministry of Defense says.
Russian massive attacks on Ukraine
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in August, September, and October 2024, Russia launched 4,300 attack drones at Ukraine.
During these months, Ukrainian air defense forces managed to shoot down 3,063 Russian drones, which is 71%. Another 1052 (24%) were locally lost - that is, they disappeared from radar, probably as a result of active countermeasures by electronic warfare or for other reasons.
Russian drone direct strikes accounted for 5%. Destruction or damage can also be caused by the fall of drones shot down by air defense.
The head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musiienko, said that Russia is using drones and amassing missiles. According to him, Russia has already completed most of its preparations to be able to launch strikes from strategic aviation, which has not been available since August 26.
