UK intelligence explains actions of Russian aviation in Black Sea

According to the report, the merchant vessel Aya was hit by a missile in the Black Sea on September 11 while traveling south from Odesa to Egypt, carrying 26,000 tons of grain. It is almost certain that the missile was an AS-4 KITCHEN (Kh-22) anti-ship missile, launched by a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber operating in the area at the time. Fortunately, the failure of the missile to detonate prevented catastrophic damage.

"It is unlikely that the MV Aya was the intended target for this mission and was likely struck due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition. Russia has regularly attacked targets along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, including Snake Island, as they attempt to disrupt export activity and degrade any military assets in the area," the report says.

According to British intelligence, following the loss of a Tu-22M3 in April this year, Russia has become more cautious in its strike operations in the Black Sea. This incident likely occurred because the pilots mistakenly identified the Aya as their target in haste, eager to leave the area immediately after launching the missile for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.

The UK Ministry of Defence commented that the Kh-22 missile has consistently failed to perform as expected in the Ukraine war. The launch of a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect course at a likely false target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practices.

Earlier, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Vice Admiral Oleksii Neizhpapa, said that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had been forced to relocate nearly all of its operational ships from occupied Crimea to other locations.

Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk added that while Russian ships have been pushed out of the Black Sea, Russia still maintains air superiority due to the active use of aircraft and drones.