Trump vs. Iran: Another military conflict on Horizon and what's next for nuclear deal
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo: Getty Images)
Tensions between Iran and the US rise again. Tehran puts its Armed Forces on high alert.
RBC-Ukraine explains what is happening and assesses the risk of escalation between Tehran and Washington.
Contents
Military readiness in response to Trump's statements
The Iranian armed forces have prepared missiles capable of striking US positions. This was reported by the Iranian agency The Tehran Times, citing multiple government sources. According to the agency, the Iranian authorities took this step in response to ongoing threats from US President Donald Trump.
On the eve of this development, the US president stated that military strikes on Iranian targets were possible. "If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before," Trump said in a phone interview with NBC News.
The purpose of these statements is to pressure Iran into a new agreement regarding the control of its nuclear program and to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.
These words indicate a shift in rhetoric from the US president. Back in February, responding to media leaks in the US about potential strikes, Trump stated: "Reports that the United States, working together with Israel, is planning to completely destroy Iran are greatly exaggerated."
What Trump wants from Iran
In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the "nuclear deal," along with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. This agreement provided for the easing of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for reducing its nuclear program. However, in 2018, then-US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the deal and reinstated financial restrictions against Iran.
As previously reported by RBC-Ukraine, Iran has long benefited from maintaining its status as a "threshold state" — not developing nuclear weapons but constantly threatening to do so. The Iranian leadership had other means, aside from nuclear weapons, to deter potential attacks on the country. Primarily, this involved a network of Iran-backed organizations throughout the Middle East. However, since the proxy conflict between Iran and Israel escalated in October 2023, much of this network has been dismantled. Israel's actions significantly weakened the military potential of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while the Assad regime in Syria crumbled under rebel attacks.
As a result, within Iran's elite, there is growing support for the idea of developing nuclear weapons. According to The Telegraph, in early February, the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — a military organization that ensures the security of the ruling regime — appealed to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to lift the religious ban (fatwa) on the development of nuclear weapons. It is currently unknown whether a final decision has been made.
Will Iran attack
Iran has the capability to attack US military bases located across the Middle East. However, in recent years, it has done so very reluctantly, primarily under domestic public pressure and in response to public "slaps" from Israel and the US. Even in such cases, Iran has often warned through intermediaries before launching strikes, allowing the US and Israel to prepare, evacuate personnel, and minimize damage, thereby avoiding immediate retaliation.
For example, such a scenario unfolded in 2020 when Iran launched strikes on US bases in Iraq following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Similarly, in 2024, Iran retaliated against Israel after attacks on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria and the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran.
Currently, aside from Trump's statements, there are no sufficient reasons for Iran to strike US targets. Additionally, it is important to consider the source of the reports about Iran's readiness to strike. The Tehran Times is known to be associated with conservative circles within the Iranian establishment. Therefore, such agencies should be viewed in the context of unofficial messaging to the United States.
At the same time, Iran's official rhetoric through open communication channels remains less radical. Last week, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a proposal for negotiations on a new nuclear deal, setting a two-month ultimatum for reaching an agreement, CNN reported, citing a source familiar with the contents of the letter. According to the source, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steven Witkoff, delivered the letter to the President of the United Arab Emirates, who then passed it on to the Iranians.
The message contained "a more threatening position" but also offered "some opportunities" for Iran, said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Thursday.
Iran’s response letter was expected to be delivered to Trump over the weekend, but it is unclear whether this has occurred. On the other hand, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on March 29 that his country would not participate in direct negotiations with the US at this time but emphasized that Iran’s response letter does not rule out indirect negotiations through Omani intermediaries.
The further development of this situation will depend, in part, on the productivity of such negotiations. Trump’s actions and rhetoric regarding other conflicts — such as Russia and Ukraine, as well as Israel and Hamas — indicate that he is currently seeking to resolve existing conflicts rather than create new ones, even if it means exerting pressure on allies. However, during his first presidency, Trump demonstrated that he is willing to use force if necessary.
Sources: CNN, NBC, Axios, The Tehran Times, and Reuters.
