Trump's victory could increase economic risks for Hungary

Trump plans to introduce tariffs on European automotive production, which could lead to a decline in output and weaken the Hungarian forint, which has already lost ground after the recent interest rate cuts by Hungary's central bank.

Analysts believe that Trump's victory could result in further depreciation of the forint. Specifically, Roger Mark from Ninety One said that Trump adds risks for Hungary, especially considering the country's close ties to the European automotive sector. This could prevent further interest rate cuts in Hungary and even lead to rate hikes in the coming months.

The European Commission's economic model forecasts that Germany and Italy, whose economies are closely linked to Central Europe, will suffer the largest losses from new tariffs. According to J.P. Morgan, investors have revised their forecasts for Hungary's interest rates, anticipating a slowdown in rate cuts amid the uncertainty following the US election.

Political pressure on Hungary's central bank is rising as Orbán's government insists on a sharp reduction in interest rates ahead of the 2026 elections. Prior to the anticipated change in the central bank's leadership in March, it is expected that the priority will be to tackle inflation, which had previously reached a record high in the EU.

Economists warn that the forint remains the most vulnerable currency in the region to changes in global trade policy, especially given its dependence on European automotive production and Chinese investments.

US election

On November 5, Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, won the US presidential election, defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

At the same time, Western politicians published an open letter to European countries urging them to prepare for potential changes in US foreign policy.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán held a phone conversation with Trump, stating that they have "big plans for the future."