Trump's final push? Is US nearing peace deal on Ukraine, and what are Putin's plans

Takeaways

• What were the negotiations in Paris like, and what can be expected from the meeting in London on April 23?

• What proposals is the US putting forward during the negotiations, and why are they threatening to withdraw from the process?

• Why is Putin's Easter truce a gesture not for Ukraine, but for Trump?

• What is Ukraine's position in the negotiations, and what red lines has Kyiv outlined?

• Is Ukraine truly considering the possibility of handing over part of its territory as part of a peace agreement?

• What do Putin's statements about his willingness for direct negotiations mean, and how is Ukraine responding to this?

What was discussed at the meeting in Paris, and what to expect from the negotiations in London

The meeting in London this Wednesday will be held between Ukraine, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States to discuss the peaceful resolution of the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who announced the meeting, stated that the negotiations will focus on achieving an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine.

"We are ready to continue moving forward in a highly constructive manner to achieve an unconditional ceasefire followed by the establishment of real and lasting peace," Zelenskyy said, calling the unconditional ceasefire the first step toward peace.

According to sources from RBC-Ukraine, the Ukrainian delegation at this meeting will include:

• Head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak

• Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov

• Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha

• Deputy Head of the President's Office, Pavlo Palisa

The United States will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys to the US President, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. European countries will be represented by foreign ministers and national security advisers.

This meeting will be the second one after Paris, where the US, Ukraine, and its European allies discussed the American plan for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war.

On April 17, Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov met with representatives of the Coalition of the Willing, and the US President of France Emmanuel Macron, in turn, held separate talks with Rubio and Witkoff. The US Secretary of State also had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

As Bloomberg learned from informed European officials, during the meeting in the French capital, the Americans presented their proposals to European allies for ending the war in Ukraine. These proposals include, among other things, the freezing of the front line.

Photo: negotiations held in Paris were described as "positive and constructive" (facebook.com/rustemumerov)

According to their statements, the US is essentially proposing to freeze the war, leaving the occupied territories of Ukraine under Russian control. This was specifically stated by Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He suggested that Moscow may gain control over some regions of Ukraine, but not all of them.

In addition to the territorial issue, the American plan presented to Europeans excludes Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership. The US is also proposing to ease sanctions on Russia, which would require direct involvement from Europe, as most of Russia's assets are frozen there. However, it is unlikely that the EU will agree to ease these restrictions.

One of Bloomberg's sources noted that the US proposals will not constitute a final peace settlement and will require discussions with Kyiv. He also mentioned that European allies do not recognize the occupied territories as Russian and that security guarantees for a peace agreement are crucial.

The Wall Street Journal, in turn, wrote that the US has also allowed for the recognition of occupied Crimea as Russian within the framework of a peace agreement. Additionally, the US president's team proposed declaring the area around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant "neutral" and placing it under international control.

According to the WSJ, Kyiv is expected to respond to these proposals this week at the meeting in London. Later, if the parties' positions align, the proposals may be passed on to Moscow.

Western officials say that the ideas put forward by Trump's administration do not meet some of Russia's demands. For example, the US does not recognize Russian control over parts of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions, but also does not demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from there.

Western officials also say that the US does not propose limiting Ukrainian forces or hindering military support for Kyiv from the West, or the deployment of European troops in Ukraine.

However, there is still no decision on what kind of security guarantees Ukraine might receive if it agrees to the US proposals. The Trump administration has not stated whether it is willing to provide military support to European countries planning to send military contingents to Ukraine as part of a deterrent against future Russian aggression.

US is exerting pressure and threatening to withdraw from negotiations

To apply pressure on Ukraine and Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated last Friday that the US side may withdraw from the negotiation process, according to the WSJ.

On April 18, Rubio said that the US expects progress towards achieving peace in Ukraine within a few days; otherwise, President Donald Trump will be informed that the negotiations are no longer meaningful.

"So, we need to determine very quickly now, and I’m talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable in the – over the next few weeks. If it is, we’re in. If it’s not, then we’ll have to – we have other priorities to focus on as well," Rubio said.

On the same day, commenting on the secretary's words, Trump confirmed that the United States would exit peace talks if one of the parties "complicates" the process too much.

Photo: Trump publicly threatened to withdraw from the peace process on Ukraine (Getty Images)

At the same time, the White House leader expressed hope that the US "won’t have to do this" and added that "there are good chances" for achieving a peaceful settlement.

Asked what progress he would need to see to continue negotiations, Trump said he would "have to see an enthusiasm to want to end it" from both sides, predicting he would know "soon."

Axios, citing a source close to the Ukrainian government, wrote that the pressure was allegedly directed towards Ukraine, not Russia. European diplomats claimed that Rubio did not mention increasing pressure on Russia during the Paris meetings.

At the same time, the US side has not specified what their possible withdrawal from negotiations would look like. The State Department only emphasized that it seeks "rapid progress."

Why did Putin need the Easter truce proposed by Zelenskyy?

Against the backdrop of US statements about a possible withdrawal from the negotiation process, Putin, who had actually rejected US proposals for a 30-day truce discussed in Saudi Arabia, decided to unilaterally declare a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine during Easter.

At midnight, the Easter truce announced by Vladimir Putin ended on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Both sides claimed that the ceasefire had been violated.

On the night of Monday, 21 April, Putin's Easter truce ended, during which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed seven reports accusing Russia of violating it. On Sunday alone, Russian troops violated the ceasefire 2,935 times, with a total of 96 assaults and 1,882 attacks.

Despite the numerous violations of the self-declared truce by Russia, the intensity of hostilities has decreased. While on 20 April, the General Staff recorded a total of 96 combat clashes, on 21 April, there were already 165. Zelenskyy admitted that on Easter Sunday, there were no air alerts in Ukraine and that there were "some areas of the frontline" where silence continued.

However, during the truce, the Russian troops also used it to their advantage. The 66th Separate Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded the Russian forces clearing the crossing on the Chornyi Zherebets River in the Luhansk region of previously destroyed equipment. The crossing is likely to be actively used in the future, according to the DeepState analytical project.

It should be noted that over the weekend, Zelenskyy offered Russia several times to extend the ceasefire for 30 days, including only in the sky. According to the President of Ukraine, this is the only way Russia is complying with the ceasefire.

However, Putin did not give his troops the order to continue the ceasefire. On Monday morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the resumption of the so-called special military operation (SVO). On the first night after the Easter ceasefire, the Russian forces launched 42 drones and three missiles at Ukraine. Russia continues to terrorize the Ukrainian population.

Photo: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed that Russia refrain from strikes on civilian infrastructure (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)

As political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko noted, Putin has no intention of making longer pauses. If he had, he would have extended the ceasefire. Therefore, such actions by the Russian leader are more of an imitation, as if he "promised and stopped."

"This is a move aimed at Trump, a negotiation trick, tactical actions to demonstrate to Trump that Putin is ready to negotiate, can negotiate, but the parallel goal was to set up the Ukrainians, discredit them. To show that Putin is allegedly ready for a ceasefire, but Ukrainians are not, they are not ready to end this war. That was the point," Fesenko said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

The political analyst pointed out that Putin announced the Easter ceasefire at 4:45 PM on Saturday and set its start for 6 PM Moscow time, even though it is impossible to stop the fire in an hour.

"This doesn't happen in a moment. If there is a real ceasefire, both warring sides agree on it in advance, at least a day or two before. It doesn't happen unilaterally. Because it is impossible to stop a war unilaterally," Fesenko emphasized.

Therefore, in the political analyst's view, this was "undoubtedly Putin's spectacle aimed at Trump." And it is no coincidence that it was the Easter ceasefire, because Trump really wanted a ceasefire by April 20. And not because it was Easter, but because it marked exactly three months of Trump's presidency.

"Putin gave him a small gift. Plus, he demonstrated that he is ready to negotiate a ceasefire. In order not to let Trump slip away from the negotiation hook, Putin made this gesture. And I think they even informed the Americans a little earlier. So, this was primarily a game with the US. Even in Russia, it was written that this was a performance for a single viewer in Washington," Fesenko says.

At the same time, according to the political analyst, the Kremlin did this to set up and discredit Ukraine, claiming that it does not want a ceasefire, and so on. However, Ukraine neutralized this with its actions.

"We said we were ready to mirror the ceasefire. Moreover, we proposed to extend it. But Putin did not agree. And, thus, this game he started did not achieve the result Putin had hoped for," Fesenko adds.

On the other hand, the expert says, for Trump, this is enough. He assumes that the US President now feels more optimistic because he got what he wanted: both sides — Russia and Ukraine — reacted.

"This ceasefire was definitely an imitation, a negotiating and political spectacle. It was partial; it did not lead to a full ceasefire, and on many parts of the front, there were actions, even assault actions by the Russians. But nonetheless, there is a positive negotiation effect from this ceasefire," Fesenko concludes.

Russia has sought direct negotiations with Ukraine

However, last evening, Putin, for the first time since the start of the large-scale war, proposed direct negotiations with Ukraine. As Reuters notes, the Russian President's statement came amid pressure from the US, which threatened to abandon its peace efforts if no progress was made.

In response to Kyiv's proposal to refrain from striking civilian targets, Putin stated that Russia needs to "look into it."

"This (the ceasefire proposal — ed.) needs to be looked into, it's all a subject for thorough review. Perhaps, bilaterally, as a result of a dialogue, we do not rule that out," said the Kremlin leader.

His press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, later clarified that the Russian President was referring specifically to "negotiations and discussions with the Ukrainian side." He also hinted that Russia wants Ukraine to lift the ban on negotiations with the Kremlin leader (Zelenskyy has enacted a decision by the National Security and Defense Council to prohibit negotiations with Putin).

"Ukraine must legally remove the obstacles if it wants direct negotiations with Russia," Peskov said.

It is worth noting that Zelenskyy, during his video address yesterday, did not directly respond to Putin's statements but emphasized that Ukraine is "ready for any conversation" that would guarantee the safety of the civilian population and expects a clear response from Moscow.

However, as Fesenko notes, Putin's words about the supposed willingness for direct negotiations with Ukraine do not necessarily mean that this is about negotiations in the format of Zelenskyy-Putin.

Photo: Putin proposed direct talks with Ukraine for the first time since the start of the full-scale war (Getty Images)

"It concerns the necessity of direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with the mediation of the US. Because a complete ceasefire must be negotiated, including with the participation of military experts, as there are many technical issues," Fesenko says.

According to him, whether a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin will take place depends on Trump. But there is no real negotiation sense in this. Because real agreements should be made not at the highest level.

"These need to be agreed upon in the negotiation process that is happening now. Because it is a myth that all issues are settled at the highest level. No, most issues are discussed at the level of real negotiators who are engaged in technical negotiations. At the highest levels, the most complicated issues are agreed upon, or something is signed," Fesenko added.

Trump promises to reveal details of the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine

The US had previously stated that they would like the ceasefire to continue even after Easter. Trump announced that there is a high probability that a Ukrainian-Russian agreement would be signed this week. He also added that after this, both countries would "will start to do big business with the United States of Amerika, which is thriving, and make a fortune."

Furthermore, he promised to reveal the full details of the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia within the next three days.

"We had very good meetings regarding Ukraine and Russia," Trump said to reporters on April 21.

When asked whether a peace agreement could be signed this week, the US president responded, "There's a very good chance." At the same time, the head of the White House avoided answering a question on whether the US could recognize Ukrainian Crimea as Russian.

Meanwhile, the New York Post, citing a government official from the US administration, also reported that Trump's plan could be published within the next three days and includes the deployment of European troops to Ukraine.

"The most difficult part is how the security forces will look," said the official.

There is also consideration of creating separate forces to monitor the ceasefire, which would function as a "joint commission" consisting of Russians, Ukrainians, and a third country that is not part of NATO.

This commission would observe the front lines to ensure that both sides adhere to the ceasefire. According to the official, the US could also be involved, not as a military force on the ground but as a financial force, together with the third country.

Additionally, the official stated that Ukraine seems "ready to give up 20% of its land de facto," but not "de jure."

"'De facto' means that we recognize the Russians have occupied this land, but we do not say that Ukraine will give it up forever. 'De jure' means we acknowledge that the Russians have seized this land, and we will never see it again," explained the official.

One of the last attempts to reach a compromise

As political analyst Fesenko explains to RBC-Ukraine, Putin is currently playing a clever game, with both a strategy and tactics for negotiations. For the Kremlin leader, Trump is important — not because of negotiations over ending the war.

"He wants to strike a big deal with Trump over business and geopolitics — that's what matters. It's important to become a partner with Trump, to break the unity with the West, to use negotiations with Trump to lift sanctions, and to reduce dependence on China through rapprochement with Trump. He can achieve a lot through negotiations with Trump," the interlocutor pointed out.

The question is whether this will work out, but nevertheless, a president like Trump is a big opportunity for Putin. There may not be another president like this, so Putin is trying to seize the moment, says Fesenko.

"The problem for Putin is that Trump wants a ceasefire as the first step. But for Putin, this is less interesting because he wants the continuation of the war against Ukraine; he wants Ukraine’s capitulation. Therefore, he has chosen this approach. Prolonging the war, as well as prolonging the negotiation process, is not Putin’s goal. It is a means, a tool," Fesenko emphasized.

Thus, the head of the Kremlin aims to pressure Trump into making one-sided concessions for Russia, particularly on lifting sanctions. On the other hand, he wants peace on Russian terms, with Trump pushing Ukraine to accept it.

"We are more dependent on the US. That’s why the Russians explicitly state that the easiest way for the US to end the war is to force Ukraine to stop fighting on Russian terms. And then the war will quickly end. This is Russia’s strategy," the political analyst concludes.

However, the positive aspect is that some people within Trump's team understand that peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved on Russian terms alone. There cannot be peace solely based on Russian conditions. This is why discrepancies arise and the negotiation process gets stalled, the interlocutor explained.

"Therefore, now will be one of the last attempts to reach some kind of compromise, to ceasefire, and for Trump, it would be ideal to do so by the end of April, before the 100-day mark of his presidency," Fesenko concluded.

On April 30, 2025, it will be exactly 100 days since Donald Trump’s inauguration. This date is traditionally considered important in American politics, as it marks the first assessment of a US president’s performance.

Earlier, The New York Post reported that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov allegedly told US officials that Kyiv "90%" supports President Trump's peace initiative.

However, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense denied this, stating that the ministry "does not make political decisions" and therefore could not make "percentage-based assessments."

Ukraine has established several red lines that it will not compromise on during peace negotiations. Specifically, Kyiv has officially stated that it will not make territorial concessions, demands the return of abducted children, and insists on international security guarantees.

Sources: materials from Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Axios, New York Post, press services of the Air Force and General Staff, statements from country leaders and other officials, as well as an exclusive comment from political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.