Trump’s blockade in effect: Iran has only days left before halting oil production
Illustrative photo: Iran will be forced to halt oil production (Getty Images)
Iran will be forced to significantly reduce oil production within two weeks if a US maritime blockade cuts off its exports. The country’s storage facilities are currently just over half full, according to the Financial Times.
According to satellite monitoring data from the company Kayrros, Iran’s oil storage tanks used for crude that cannot be exported are currently 51% full. At the current export level of 1.8 million barrels per day, the available storage capacity would last for approximately 16 days of production.
If exports are blocked, the country would quickly reach the critical storage threshold of 92 million barrels. This record level was seen only once before — during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Forecasts and Tehran’s strategy
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, believes that if exports are halted, Tehran would continue production for another 10–15 days. After that, the country would have to restrict output at several oil fields.
He added that in recent days, a normal number of tankers have entered the Gulf to load oil at Iran’s export terminals. This allows Tehran to store additional volumes of crude on vessels.
Throughout the conflict, Iran has been loading one or two supertankers per day at its export hub on Kharg Island. Each of them is capable of carrying 2 million barrels.
US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
A US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was introduced on Monday, April 13, following an order from US President Donald Trump after the collapse of peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
According to Trump, violators approaching the blockade will be eliminated. He also claimed that Iran’s naval forces are "lying at the bottom of the sea" and that 158 of Tehran’s vessels have been completely destroyed.
At the same time, on April 14, the sanctioned Chinese tanker Rich Starry passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker completed the transit despite the blockade imposed by US forces.
RBC-Ukraine also reported that blocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz carries significant risks. In particular, US naval vessels in the narrow strait could become targets for missiles and drones, with very limited reaction time.
