Trump's biggest mistake was underestimating Iran — NYT
Photo: US President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
In preparing for military action in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump underestimated Iran—and that was his biggest mistake, according to The New York Times.
The US and Israel struck Iran, but failed to take into account the main thing — Tehran responded much more harshly than expected and blocked one of the world's key oil routes.
What went wrong
Even before the war began, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright assured that oil disruptions would be minimal, saying that markets quickly calmed down during the strikes on Iran in June 2025. Trump was also aware of the risks but considered them a short-term problem.
Iran reacted differently: it began threatening to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass. Shipping in the Persian Gulf effectively came to a halt, oil prices rose sharply, and the cost of gasoline for Americans went up.
Confusion in Washington
Energy Secretary Wright posted on social media that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. The markets reacted with a rise in stocks. But a few hours later, the post was deleted because there had been no escort. The markets fell again.
After a closed briefing, Senator Christopher Murphy said that the administration has no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and does not know how to safely reopen it.
According to the agency, some officials within the administration are pessimistic about the lack of a strategy to end the war, but are trying not to mention this to Trump.
Price of mistakes
In the first two days of the war, the US spent $5.6 billion on ammunition, much more than planned. Iran could have mined the strait. In response to this information, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced that the US would launch relentless strikes on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian official Ali Ardashir Larijani wrote on social media that the Strait of Hormuz will either become a strait of peace and prosperity for all, or it will be a strait of defeat and suffering for the instigators of war.
Trump, in turn, called on tanker crews to show courage and continue through the strait.
Due to the war in Iran, oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, with Brent reaching $104, an increase of more than 15%.
At the same time, stock markets fell, with Dow futures down nearly 2% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also in the red. Gasoline in the US rose 16% over the week to $3.45 per gallon (3.78 liters).
The Trump administration tried to calm the markets, and Treasury Secretary Bessent even allowed for a softening of sanctions against Russian oil to compensate for the shortage caused by the Iranian conflict.
