Trump overtakes Harris in 2024 presidential forecasts - The Hill

Since late August, the forecasts had shown an advantage for Harris, with her chances ranging from 54% to 56%, while Trump's hovered between 44% and 46%. However, the balance of power began to shift in early October. By October 17, both candidates were projected to have equal chances of winning, but just three days later, Trump pulled ahead.

This forecast shift is attributed to Trump's improved polling numbers in several key states, including Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris previously held a slight lead. Additionally, Trump already had a small advantage in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Seven "swing states," including Pennsylvania, which remains the only state where Harris holds the lead, are seen as decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.

However, polling results remain within the margin of error, preserving the race's unpredictability and leaving room for further changes.

US presidential election

The battle between the top candidates intensifies as the US presidential election on November 5 approaches. According to a poll by the Harvard Center for American Political Studies (Harvard CAPS/Harris), Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Kamala Harris in crucial swing states that could play a decisive role in the election.

Harris's campaign team has been actively using a strategy to undermine Trump's position by turning his strengths against him. Specifically, Harris's team emphasizes transparency, calling for Trump to release his medical records.

Harris has invited Trump to participate in a second round of pre-election debates, which he previously declined. As the election nears, this invitation has become part of a tactic to pressure Trump and demonstrate Harris's readiness for open and honest discussions with voters.