Trump may be right, Putin’s ambitions could extend beyond Ukraine - ISW

Putin's ambitions

US President Donald Trump suggests that the territorial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin go beyond the occupation of Ukrainian territories, echoing concerns voiced by the US military leadership.

Trump noted that, in his view, the Russian leader wants a way out of the current situation because it’s chaos for him. The President also remarked that Putin was wrong about his invasion of Ukraine.

ISW assessment

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirms that Russia is preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO and is laying the groundwork to justify aggression against former Soviet states that are not NATO members.

“ISW has long assessed that Russia is preparing its military and society for a possible future conflict with NATO following the conclusion of the war in Ukraine, including by pursuing military reforms; integrating veterans into all levels of Russian local, regional, and federal governments; and setting rhetorical conditions to justify future aggression against NATO,” the report states.

ISW also notes that the Kremlin is now using the same kind of rhetoric it employed against Ukraine before the full-scale invasion in February 2022, this time to threaten NATO member states.

Threat of Russia-NATO war

In mid-2024, Estonian intelligence reported that Russia is actively preparing for a new military conflict, which could potentially include a confrontation with NATO. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also acknowledged the possibility of war between Russia and NATO, urging allies to be prepared for emerging threats.

Previously, the defense ministers of Latvia, Poland, and Romania called on NATO allies to urgently strengthen air defense measures on the Alliance’s eastern flank.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also warned that the next victims of Vladimir Putin’s regime could be the Baltic states or Poland.