Trump facing a choice. Dangers for Ukraine in new talks round
Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)
Negotiations on ending Russia's war against Ukraine are moving forward, albeit slowly, under the pressure of US President Donald Trump. Last week, several significant trends emerged for Ukraine.
RBC-Ukraine explains what they mean for Ukraine and what to expect from the new talks in Saudi Arabia.
Contents
Russian narratives from Americans
Last week, US President Donald Trump had two phone conversations. First with Russia's Vladimir Putin, and then with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The first conversation was supposed to give the Trump team a clear answer as to whether Russia was committed to ending the war. Before that, Putin had said he was not against a truce, but he cited so many “buts” that most observers had the impression that the negotiations were being deliberately delayed.
The conversation with Putin did not add to the clarity. Washington wanted Russia to agree to the full 30-day truce agreed upon in Jeddah, which could then be presented to the American public as at least some kind of achievement. In return, Putin allegedly agreed or pretended to agree to stop attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. At the same time, he linked further peaceful settlement to many conditions favorable primarily to himself. The key ones had been announced earlier, such as the cessation of military support and the end of mobilization in Ukraine.
According to the White House, the movement toward peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on the implementation of a naval truce in the Black Sea.
“As we expected, they (the Russians - ed.) do not directly refuse this imitation of a peace process, but they put forward a bunch of requirements that Ukraine must fulfill for them to start this peace process,” Dmytro Levus, a political scientist and expert at the United Ukraine think tank, told RBC-Ukraine.
However, new details have emerged that are potentially dangerous for Ukraine. On the eve of the conversation between Trump and Putin, the American news agencies Semafor and The New York Times revealed another batch of insights, including the possible legal recognition of some of Ukraine's occupied territories as Russian. This is one of Ukraine's important red lines. The United States is aware of it but believes that it can be worked with. This was indirectly confirmed by Trump's Middle East and Russia envoy Steven Witkoff in an interview with blogger Tucker Carlson.
Speaking about the issue of territories, Witkoff essentially repeated the theses of Russian propaganda. “I think the largest issue in that conflict are these so-called four regions - Donbas, Crimea, Luhansk, and there's two others (probably Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - ed.). They are Russian-speaking, there have been referendums (illegal, held by Russia- ed.). I think that's the key issue in the conflict,” Witkoff said.
Trump's representative also mentioned that “there are constitutional issues within Ukraine as to what they can concede to with regard to giving up territory.”
“The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is, will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories? Will it end up? Can Zelenskyy survive politically if he acknowledges this? This is the central issue in the conflict,” said Witkoff.
However, later in an interview with Fox News, Trump's emissary said he was not taking sides.
According to Bloomberg, Trump is in a hurry and wants to agree on a truce before Easter - April 20. However, the issue of the legal status of the territories will definitely block negotiations in the future.
There are more tactical, but no less important contradictions. The cessation of Western aid to Ukraine, as demanded by Putin, is basically impossible to implement. Even if the United States tried to do so, European countries would strongly oppose such a step. So Trump faces a new question: how to speed up the pace of negotiations.
In this regard, the United States must so far make fewer harsh statements about Ukraine. In particular, there is not even a hint of a suspension of military aid to Ukraine or intelligence sharing. This is an important change in the US position on Ukraine. It is worth recalling that the infamous quarrel between Zelenskyy and Trump in the White House was fundamentally related to this - Ukraine tried to set its conditions but faced pressure from Trump and Vance.
New format of negotiations
In such circumstances, negotiations are taking place at the level of technical teams in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Late in the evening of March 23, the delegations of Ukraine and the United States met. Today, the US and Russia are expected to meet. Keith Kellogg, the US President's Special Representative for Ukraine, said that during the talks in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian and Russian delegations would sit in different rooms, and the discussion would be channeled through the Americans.
"Basically you say, "Okay, what are your terms?" then you go to the other side, "What are your terms?" It’s essentially shuttle diplomacy between rooms in Riyadh," Kellogg described the negotiation scheme.
In theory, this should be an effective method. Mediators, in this case, the United States, can filter information, soften the positions of the parties, and offer compromises. In addition, this format allows the parties to express their positions more openly to the mediator without fear of an immediate reaction from the other side. Further, it can help identify real red lines and potential points of contact.
At the same time, this creates excessive dependence on the mediator and reduces the transparency of the negotiations for the parties themselves, as they do not see the reactions of their opponents in real-time. Not to mention slowing down the negotiations. All of this is tactically more favorable to Russia.
"By and large, this is an attempt to save the situation with the negotiations and to carry on the negotiation process at all costs, which is impossible. They have chosen their path, if they consider themselves mediators, then let them do so," Dmytro Levus told RBC-Ukraine.
However, it seems that so far the talks have not reached such shuttle diplomacy, and both Ukraine and Russia are communicating with the Americans in a traditional, bilateral format.
Russia's intentions during this round of talks are evidenced, in particular, by the selection of members of the Russian delegation. These are Senator Grigory Karasin and Advisor to the FSB Director Sergei Beseda. The latter previously headed the FSB's 5th Service, which worked directly against Ukraine.
“These characters are being sent precisely to try to dictate to the Americans the requirements that they will then pass on to Ukraine. And they will certainly not be coordinating the final agreements,” Levus noted.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi, the Ukrainian side will be represented by energy, military, and other experts, as well as the head of the Presidential Office and the Defense Ministry. According to The Washington Post, the US side will include Michael Anton, Director of Policy Planning at the Secretary of State, assistants to US Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, and representatives of the Office of National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.
For Ukraine, this format could mean new pressure for concessions if the US deems them necessary for a quick result. However, the question of whom Trump will decide to put pressure on this time is not obvious. As before, Kyiv is in a more vulnerable position compared to Moscow, and therefore it is easier to put pressure on the Ukrainian leadership. On the other hand, Ukraine has repeatedly confirmed that it is ready for a constructive dialog, which is not the case with Russia. So, going forward, the key will be to fight for the hearts and minds of Trump and his team.
Sources: Semafor, The New York Times, Reuters, The Washington Post, statements by Ukrainian and American politicians, comments by Dmytro Levus.
