Trump advisers seriously consider likelihood of impeachment - Axios

"I’m certain," pollster John McLaughlin told Axios, echoing others in Trump’s inner circle.

As the only president to have been impeached twice, Trump and his team are well aware of how burdensome the process can be for the White House and how it can derail the president’s agenda.

Democrats don’t currently control the House of Representatives, but they have already made it clear they want to see Trump through another impeachment.

Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar fired a warning shot, introducing seven articles of impeachment against Trump over his handling of immigration, humanitarian aid, and judicial decisions. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff became the first senator from a swing state to support impeaching Trump.

The threat of impeachment has intensified the Trump administration’s drive to push through as much of its agenda as possible before the 2026 midterm elections, especially its plan to extend the 2017 tax cuts.

But the threat of another impeachment could also help Trump’s team motivate his volatile base.

Democrats are under pressure from their base to take a tougher line against Trump, and a pledge to impeach Trump is likely to help Democrats raise money from grassroots donors and boost the national profile of Democratic lawmakers.

But some Democratic leaders and strategists say they need to be more moderate to attract wavering voters who backed Trump in 2024 and who Democrats need to win the election.

Procedure

There are no standards for impeachment other than what the House of Representatives deems an impeachable offense.

A simple majority vote in the House is required to impeach a president, but 67 votes in the 100-member Senate are required to remove a president from office, which has never happened.

Democrats are just a few seats short of regaining a majority in the 435-member House of Representatives that would give them the authority to launch an impeachment inquiry.

False threat

Impeachment is a devastating process, but for Trump, it’s not what it used to be, a second aide to the president said.

"Ooh, impeachment," the aide said mockingly. "They already did it twice and it did nothing."

Attorney David Schoen, who defended Trump during his first impeachment over aid to Ukraine, said he thought the president "would care. It would be yet another effort at derailing the agenda he was elected to pursue."

But Schoen added, "I think he also would recognize that while some on the far left would cheer it, it would likely help him politically on the backdrop of the previous two efforts and the other attacks the past four years, which I believe propelled many voters to vote for him."

Trump's resignation is unlikely

If he wins the November 2026 House of Representatives elections, the Democratic Party would have the opportunity in 2027 (after new congressmen take office) to vote to impeach Trump on any charges against him.

However, this does not mean that the US president will be removed from office - for this, the impeachment must be supported by two-thirds of the Senate. It is unlikely that the Democratic Party will have two-thirds of the seats in the Senate in 2027.

Accordingly, the Senate will most likely acquit Trump in this case, and the impeachment will not be completed. It is in this scenario that Donald Trump has already been impeached twice during his first term, in 2019 and 2021, and the Senate acquitted him twice.