This winter won't be easy: NBU estimates electricity shortage in Ukraine

"We use data from various sources, aggregating them to form our own hypothesis. Our assessment suggests that the electricity deficit for 2024, following the attacks and destruction we've already endured, will be 7%," he said.

Pyshnyi said that while the actual deficit level is slightly better than expected, risks remain, especially in the fall, with the possibility of renewed attacks. "For now, we remain in the baseline scenario," he added.

He highlighted the swift efforts to restore destroyed energy-generating capacities and, more importantly, to build a diversified system of small-scale generation.

"Can these capacities be fully restored within a month after becoming unavailable due to attacks? Of course not. It takes time and a tremendous amount of resources. This winter will not be easy, and we will all feel the impact of the deficit," Pyshnyi warned.

The NBU governor also emphasized that, "In a sense, each of us must become an energy expert to figure out the best way to get through this winter."

He urged people to ensure their homes are equipped with autonomous power and energy sources, advising that this needs to be done immediately. He mentioned the availability of products within the government’s zero-interest lending program, and that commercial loans are also available. "If your business is critically dependent on a stable energy supply, it's time to move toward autonomy," Pyshnyi said.

Electricity deficit

According to the IMF, large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector between late March and May seriously damaged or destroyed nearly half of the country’s power generation capacity, which produces over 9 GW. Overall, over 80% of thermal power plants and over 40% of hydroelectric plants have been affected.

The IMF forecasts an average electricity deficit in Ukraine of around 10% for 2024. However, severe shortages (up to 30%) are likely only during peak hours.