Selydove in 'red zone'? Frontline situation analysis and possible risk for Pokrovsk

Contents

• Situation in the city
• Why is Selydove important?
• Is there a front collapse?
• Is the battle for Pokrovsk close?

Situation in the city

The Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed the alleged capture of Selydove on October 29. Before this, footage circulated online showing Russians raising their flags. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reported on the Russian tricolor flag over the Selydove City Council building.

The city has significant destruction. The mobile service in Selydove is not functioning. Therefore, there is no way to contact relatives or acquaintances who did not evacuate from the city.

"If relatives of those who remained in Selydove called, we organized their evacuation. People could make contact by climbing to the roofs of nine-story buildings to catch a signal. Now there is no way to contact them, and we don’t know what to do," representatives of the contact center for the Selydove Military Administration told Free Radio.

The Ukrainian side has not officially confirmed the withdrawal from the city. However, last night, the Ukrainian project DeepState updated the map and reported that Selydove, as well as the nearby Vyshneve, have been occupied by the enemy.

DeepState reports the occupation of Selydove (deepstatemap)

According to the morning report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they do not confirm the loss of these two settlements. On the contrary, it is stated that Ukrainian troops halted 28 assault and offensive actions by the aggressor in the Pokrovsk direction, including toward Vyshneve and Selydove.

RBC-Ukraine has reached out for comments from the National Guard and the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, but they are not commenting on the situation.

The overall situation at the front is described as severe. Today, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that intense heavy fighting is ongoing along the entire front line.

Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, commented on the battlefield events, noting that the situation at the front is currently difficult.

"Russia currently has the resources to advance and an advantage in personnel and ammunition. This resource is being depleted, but it still exists. This is the reality," he wrote on his Telegram channel.

Why is Selydove important?

Selydove is the last significant urban area covering the southern edge of Pokrovsk (the city of Selydove is located about 13 km southeast of the major logistics center - the city of Pokrovsk), as well as the E-50 highway, which connects these cities.

British intelligence recently suggested that the Russian Federation intends to use this route as a secondary path for advancing toward Pokrovsk if Selydove is taken.

According to military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance Group, the likelihood that Selydove has already been lost is high. He also explained in a comment to RBC-Ukraine what the occupation of the city would mean.

"With the capture of Selydove, the occupiers will have a pathway to establish conditions for further preparations for an offensive on Pokrovsk. Subsequently, they will move simultaneously toward Hryhorivka-Petrivka-Zhovte, as well as along the E-50 highway toward Dachenske," Kovalenko believes.

After capturing Selydove, the Russians could move toward Hryhorivka-Petrivka-Zhovte and along the E-50 highway (deepstatemap)

Thus, Russians will attempt to build a mainline for further advancement toward Pokrovsk, specifically referring to the line through Zhovte-Dachenske-Lysivka-Mykolaivka-Hrodivka, Kovalenko adds.

Settlements that could determine the main line for the further Russian offensive on Pokrovsk (deepstatemap)

"And it is from this main stronghold, when it is fully formed, that they can start a direct offensive on Pokrovsk from the south, as well as an advance on Myrnohrad to encircle Pokrovsk from the east," Kovalenko says.

In the expert's opinion, the Russians currently have no strategic success. All their recent gains in the offensive are exclusively at the tactical level.

"The only operational-tactical level object on their path, as of now, is Pokrovsk," Kovalenko adds.

Is there a front collapse?

Despite the difficult situation regarding the front collapse that many are talking about, there is none, said military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) employee Ivan Stupak in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

“Let’s put it this way. Two polar opinions are circulating online. One comes from the tabloid Bild. Analyst Julian Röpcke says that ‘everything is lost,’ and ‘the front is collapsing.’ The other side, which I lean toward more, is that the situation at the front is, to put it mildly, unpleasant,” noted Stupak.

He emphasized that it is also incorrect to say that Ukrainian troops are “retreating, fleeing, leaving behind equipment, shells, and ammunition.”

“Yes, we retreated. We confirm that. There have been recent losses in Vuhledar, Selydove, and several other populated areas. Now there is a threat to Pokrovsk,” added Stupak.

However, in his opinion, even during such a forced retreat, it is worth noting the losses of Russian troops, which are staggering this month.

“If I’m not mistaken, we will have a record for losses on the Russian side. This includes the dead, wounded, missing in action, and captured. It will be close to 40,000 people,” says Stupak.

Therefore, he said, it is incorrect to say that “everything has completely fallen apart.”

“Of course, there are complaints about fortifications. How much has been said about this… In the Dnipropetrovsk region, they are only just starting to build, although this was discussed six months ago,” added Stupak.

Is the battle for Pokrovsk close?

Defense forces are currently constructing fortifications on the outskirts of Pokrovsk in preparation for the city’s defense. The head of the City Military Administration, Serhii Dobriak, stated yesterday that the city will be partially blocked, as several echelons have already been built to block some streets and neighborhoods of Pokrovsk.

“We need to be ready. The storming of Pokrovsk is not far off, and we will see it soon, with Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region just behind Pokrovsk,” believes Stupak.

When asked how close the battle for Pokrovsk is, he replied that he could not say whether it was a matter of days or weeks. It depends on the forces the occupiers have and what they are prepared to do with them.

“The tactic will be as follows. They will cut off the road connections from the Dnipropetrovsk region. That is the only option to force Ukrainians to leave this location very quickly,” noted Stupak.

According to him, the Russian command does not see prospects in a frontal assault on Pokrovsk; instead, they aim to circumvent it from the left or right, cut off communications, and force Ukrainians to leave the city on their own.

It is worth noting that there are currently 11,900 residents in the settlement, including 55 children. However, Pokrovsk's infrastructure is 80% destroyed. Therefore, local authorities are urging residents to evacuate, as there will be no heating season in the city.

Sources: reports from the General Staff, Telegram channels of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and head of the Center for Countering Disinformation Andrii Kovalenko, statements from the head of the Pokrovsk City Military Administration Serhii Dobriak, as well as exclusive comments from military-political observer of the Information Resistance Group Oleksandr Kovalenko and military expert, former SBU employee Ivan Stupak.