Security guarantees for Ukraine: What Kyiv seeks, how US and Europe respond

Contents

• What security guarantees Ukraine wants from its allies
• Are there security guarantees in a minerals deal?
• What Trump says about guarantees for Ukraine
• European peacekeeping contingent
• Europe's stance on Ukraine in NATO and the deal with the US

What security guarantees Ukraine wants from its allies

On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again emphasized that a just peace can only be achieved with clear security guarantees that would prevent the conflict from repeating.

According to him, NATO membership is the simplest and most reliable way to ensure peace and stability - not only in Ukraine but also in Europe. The Alliance has well-established and effective security systems that have existed for decades and have prevented wars from breaking out.

As several NATO members oppose Ukraine’s accession, one of the main security guarantees, according to Zelenskyy, is funding the Ukrainian army, ensuring a force of at least 800,000 troops.

Speaking about the importance of ending the active phase of the war, the Ukrainian president stated that a ceasefire is impossible without security guarantees and verification of the process. He supports the deployment of an allied peacekeeping contingent to prevent a new Russian attack.

Zelenskyy also stressed the need for economic guarantees, including Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

Are there security guarantees in a minerals deal?

In the context of security guarantee negotiations, President Zelenskyy underscores the importance of the US as a key ally.

During his visit to Washington on February 28, Zelenskyy plans to discuss security guarantees with US President Donald Trump.

Zelenskyy’s trip to the US is dedicated to the official signing of an agreement between Ukraine and the US on rare earth minerals. The approval process for this document was delayed over a lack of consensus between the parties on several provisions. The initial versions of the agreement did not include security guarantees, which Zelenskyy insisted on.

You can read more details on the US-Ukraine minerals deal in a separate report.

Ultimately, on February 27, the Ukrainian government approved the final version, which, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, no longer contains unfavorable conditions for Ukraine.

The prime minister emphasizes that the agreement with the US is directly linked to Ukraine's security guarantees and that neither President Zelenskyy nor the Cabinet of Ministers would consider it otherwise.

"Clause 10 explicitly states that this agreement on the fund is an integral element of bilateral and multilateral agreements, as well as specific steps toward establishing lasting peace and strengthening economic and security resilience," he said.

Shmyhal said that during the visit to Washington, the Ukrainian delegation, including government representatives, would be authorized to sign the agreement once the presidents of Ukraine and the US reach agreements on security guarantees.

As the prime minister explained, this document is a preliminary (framework) agreement, after which substantive work will begin on implementing the security guarantee arrangements.

President Zelenskyy also stressed that the agreement set to be signed on February 28 would pave the way for the next agreement — on an investment fund — with specific terms and amounts, which would need to be ratified by the parliament Verkhovna Rada.

"In the next agreement, we can discuss security guarantees in more detail or specify amounts — how the fund will be managed, etc. We are ready to talk if the condition is that future aid to Ukraine will not be free. This is the new reality," the head of state said.

Zelenskyy added that his negotiations with Trump in Washington would not only focus on the mineral resources agreement. The president wants a clear answer on whether Ukraine can count on continued US support.

"My question will be very direct — will the US continue to support us or not? If not, can we buy weapons directly from the US? Can we use frozen (Russian) assets to purchase weapons, for example, as well as for investments in various sectors such as mineral extraction? And I will discuss Ukraine’s reconstruction," Zelenskyy announced.

What Trump says about guarantees for Ukraine

Amid preparations for the minerals deal, US President Donald Trump said that the US would not provide Ukraine with "beyond... very much."

He also believes that European countries should be the ones primarily ensuring Ukraine's security guarantees.

"Let Europe do it. It’s in their interest, it’s their neighbor. But we will make efforts to ensure that everything goes as it should. We will remain Ukraine’s partner—we need rare earth metals, and they have plenty," said the US President.

Trump emphasized that US-Ukraine cooperation in the rare earth field would "automatically" provide a certain level of security, as the presence of American specialists on Ukrainian territory would serve as protection against renewed aggression from Russian troops.

"Nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there, and so we’ll be there that way," the US President said.

Regarding Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO, Donald Trump continues to express skepticism.

Recently, he stated that Ukraine should forget about NATO membership, as it is likely that Russia's leader Vladimir Putin decided to start the war because of Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.

"NATO - you can forget about. I think that's probably the reason the whole thing (the war - ed.) started," Trump said.

European peacekeeping contingent

In response to US rhetoric, European leaders have intensified their efforts to make a common approach to supporting Ukraine.

As part of security guarantees, the leaders of several countries have expressed their willingness to send peacekeeping troops.

French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to propose a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine last year. Later, France, together with the United Kingdom, developed a plan to deploy up to 30,000 European troops in Ukraine.

Under this plan, if a ceasefire agreement is reached, peacekeepers would be deployed in several Ukrainian cities, though "not necessarily on the front line." European countries expect the US to participate in the plan, including deploying American air defense forces in Ukraine's neighboring countries.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer believes that without US security guarantees, Russia may attack Ukraine again. On February 27, Starmer visited Washington and met with US President Donald Trump. At a briefing after the talks, the British Prime Minister stressed that the future peace agreement sought by the US must be well-received in Ukraine and worldwide.

"There has to be US backing, because otherwise I don't think it will deter Putin. We are working on that. I'm having extensive discussions about it," he said.

Starmer stressed that "the UK is ready to put boots on the ground and planes in the air to support a deal."

Germany and Sweden are also considering the possibility of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. Furthermore, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suggested deploying Turkish peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory.

To discuss the security guarantees that Europe could offer Ukraine, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has invited the leaders of Germany, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Türkiye, Finland, Sweden, Czechia, Romania, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to London this Sunday, March 2. NATO Secretary-General and EU leaders will also be present.

Following that, on March 6, the European Council will convene with EU leaders, where the Ukrainian president is also invited.

Europe's stance on Ukraine in NATO and the deal with the US

EU representatives disagree with US President Donald Trump's position that Ukraine cannot join NATO, arguing that NATO membership is the best security guarantee.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that Ukraine’s security guarantees should be implemented within the NATO framework, as other measures are less effective.

"These security guarantees must be implemented in the context of the Atlantic alliance because I think that this is the best framework to guarantee a peace that is neither fragile, nor temporary, and that precisely averts the risk that Europe could soon relapse into the drama of war," Meloni said.

According to her, a just and lasting peace will only be possible if Kyiv receives adequate security guarantees to prevent the war from recurring and to ensure that European nations feeling threatened can feel safe.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas also calls Ukraine's NATO membership the only effective security guarantee.

"Why are we in NATO? It is because we are afraid of Russia. And the only thing that really works - the only security guarantee that works - is NATO's umbrella," she said.

Commenting on the natural resources agreement between the US and Ukraine, Kallas said that economic partnership alone is insufficient, as security guarantees are needed in times of war.

She also pointed out that major US companies were already operating in Ukraine before the war, but that did not protect the country.

During her visit to the US, Kallas noted that it is very difficult for European states to see Russian narratives so strongly represented in America.

Sources: statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, and articles by Bloomberg, Le Monde, CNN, Wall Street Journal, and AFP.