Sanctions reversal? Will US ease pressure on Russia and what happens to its oil and gas

Contents

• Why sanctions against Russia may be eased
• What might change if sanctions eased
• What will happen to oil prices, and whether gas supplies to EU will resume

Why sanctions against Russia may be eased

Oil and gas exports are a key source of revenue for Russia. The sector has been under sanctions since 2014, which have been significantly tightened since 2022, and on January 10, 2025, the outgoing Joe Biden administration announced the toughest round of restrictions yet.

Over the years, US sanctions (along with access to US energy) have supported the European Union's efforts to reduce Moscow's cash flow to finance the war. However, the situation may change in the coming months. President Donald Trump's administration is simultaneously threatening to economically "bury" Russia and offering to ease sanctions during negotiations over Ukraine.

For example, in February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after a meeting with Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov that some of the sanctions could be lifted as part of a peaceful settlement. Later, he emphasized that Moscow has not yet done anything for this.

However, according to Reuters, this possibility is being considered. In particular, the White House has already asked the US Treasury to explore options for easing energy sanctions. However, they will not be lifted without concessions from Russia, the agency added.

If there is a breakthrough during the negotiations to end the war, Washington will ease the restrictions. This will ultimately affect the EU sanctions, Politico writes, citing unnamed representatives of the Trump administration. The US president has already shown his influence. At the beginning of the year, Hungary threatened to veto the extension of the measures, but after Rubio's call to Budapest, it changed its mind about disrupting the EU sanctions program.

January's US sanctions, in particular, affected the shadow fleet of tankers that sell Russian oil around the world. Because of these restrictions, tankers are delayed, and ports fear punishment for gray business with Moscow. Without US sanctions, it will be difficult for Europe to control ships on its own. In addition, without Washington's support, it will not be able to enforce the $60 per barrel price ceiling. Especially given that this scheme has been failing for a long time.

At the same time, Trump can change course at any time by proposing to ease restrictions, for example, during bilateral contacts with Vladimir Putin or their teams.

Recently, representatives of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine held indirect talks in Saudi Arabia. They resulted in an agreement on a truce in the sky and the Black Sea. And while Washington's statement was dry and lacked details, Moscow tied the safety of navigation to the lifting of sanctions against Rosselkhozbank and other financial organizations, their connection to SWIFT, and the lifting of restrictions on port services and sanctions against some Russian-flagged vessels.

The day before, Trump said that his team was studying the Kremlin's terms. Referring in particular to the lifting of some sanctions, he said that there are five or six conditions and that they are looking at all of them.

So far, these measures do not apply to the energy sector, but they may indicate a certain trend. The Ukrainian side generally admits that some sanctions may be lifted if they help ensure security and justice. In an interview with Politico, Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladyslav Vlasiuk said that Kyiv is ready to discuss this.

What might change if sanctions eased

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and sanctions, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of fuel oil to the United States, exporting up to 1 million tons per month. The country also supplied some crude oil, mostly from the Far East. If sanctions are eased, supplies could resume, Reuters reports.

Europe was the main buyer of Russian oil and gas before the war. But several packages of sanctions and the bloc's desire to get rid of its dependence on Russia have sharply reduced these volumes.

According to Eurostat, the volume of oil imports from Russia in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 10% of what it was in the first quarter of 2021. At least until the next revision of sanctions, changes in Russian oil and gas imports are unlikely.

The easing of US financial sanctions could have a more serious impact on Russian energy exports and revenues. By cutting off access to the SWIFT global payment system and other financial services for Russia's largest banks, these restrictions have increased fees and led to months-long payment delays for Russian exporters, who are forced to use alternative payment schemes. The easing of US sanctions will effectively unblock dollar-denominated transactions for them.

So far, Russian and Chinese banks have found workarounds. However, payments in currencies other than the US dollar are expensive, as oil suppliers have to make several conversions, which increases transaction fees.

In November 2025, the United States imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, which processed payments for Russian gas for the remaining European customers. Since then, Washington has made temporary exceptions for Hungary, Slovakia, and Türkiye to make it easier for them to settle their accounts with Moscow.

What will happen to oil prices, and whether gas supplies to EU will resume

The European Union and the United States, along with their G7 partners, have imposed a price ceiling on Russian oil of $60 per barrel. It prohibits Western insurers and traders from facilitating trade above this level. If Washington lifts the ceiling, Russian exporters will be able to find more companies willing to work with them.

Prices for Urals crude oil plummeted in 2022 when major European refineries stopped imports. Currently, this oil is priced against the global benchmark Brent (about $73) at a discount of about $10 per barrel, compared to the typical pre-war difference of $1-2.

If sanctions are eased, prices for Russian Urals may rise. But they are unlikely to return to the previous difference with Brent before European restrictions are lifted. Until then, Russia will continue to sell most of its resources to India and China. And the lifting of sanctions against the shadow tanker fleet will allow it to earn more money from crude oil sales.

As for gas, there are no sanctions on imports of Russian pipeline gas. But most countries stopped buying it after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the Russian monopoly Gazprom may have become the largest corporate casualty of the war, Reuters notes. At the end of 2024, the company suffered a historic loss of 1 trillion rubles (almost $13 billion). However, according to Forbes, the loss shown in the reports is rather "paper". It reflects the state of Gazprom's gas business only, although the holding mainly earns money from its oil subsidiary.

The easing of sanctions in this area is unlikely to bring Russian gas supplies back to pre-war levels. First, Europe is committed to completely abandoning it, and second, damage to infrastructure (such as the Nord Stream pipeline bombing or the recent attacks on the Sudzha station, which was the entry point to Ukraine's gas transportation system) will limit any potential gas exports to the West.

Sources: Reuters and Politico.