Russians plan to capture Kurakhove and Vuhledar to stretch Ukrainian forces - ISW

The report notes that recently Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations aimed at neutralizing a broad salient to the west and southwest of Donetsk, as well as advancing toward and along the H-15 (Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia) highway.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that coordinated Russian offensive operations from the southern flank towards Pokrovsk on the western flank of Ukrainian defenses around Vuhledar likely aim to increase pressure on Ukrainian forces defending the western Donetsk region and create conditions for further Russian successes in their priority offensive efforts in the Pokrovsk direction.

Tactical successes near Vuhledar

As of September 1, Russian forces have significantly intensified their offensive operations near Vuhledar to the southwest of Donetsk, achieving minor tactical successes in the area.

Geolocated footage published on September 5 indicates that Russian troops recently advanced into the center of Prechystivka (west of Vuhledar) during a mechanized assault involving approximately a company.

Additional geolocated footage published on September 5 shows that personnel from the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade are raising the Russian flag in the northwest part of Prechystivka, suggesting that Russian forces have likely captured this settlement.

Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Zolota Nyva west of Prechystivka and continue to advance in the area.

Geolocated footage published on September 5 also indicates that Russian forces recently advanced directly east of Vuhledar near Mine South Donbas No. 1.

An open-source Ukrainian resource published additional footage showing that Russian forces conducted several platoon-sized mechanized assaults near Makarivka (south of Velyka Novosilka and west of Vuhledar) and Prechystivka in recent days.

photo: Assessed control of terrain around Donetsk as of September 5, 2024 (ISW map)

The Russians' broader operational goal

The ISW report also highlights that Russian forces are conducting relatively intense offensive operations elsewhere to the southwest and west of Donetsk. The increased intensity of Russian operations near Vuhledar does not necessarily indicate a decrease in the pace of Russian offensive operations in other areas of western Donetsk in the near term.

It is noted that Russia has increased both the frequency and scale of mechanized attacks to the west and southwest of Donetsk since late July 2024 and has been conducting relatively large mechanized attacks in the area regularly, though these have resulted in only minor tactical gains.

At the same time, the report states that Russia’s intensified efforts to capitalize on achievements in the Pokrovsk direction, as well as the redeployment of Russian troops in response to Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, have not yet disrupted the pace of Russian offensives to the west and southwest of Donetsk.

“Continued large and costly Russian mechanized assaults suggest that the Russian military command has tasked elements of both the Eastern and Southern Grouping of Forces in the area with a wider operational objective,” the ISW report states.

Capture of Vuhledar and Kurakhove

Russian forces have intensified offensive operations near Vuhledar shortly after expanding the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient. This suggests that Russian forces intend to conduct reinforcing offensive operations on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction, directly west of Donetsk, along the 0-0532 highway, and around Vuhledar.

In late August 2024, Russian forces began immediate tactical actions along the Selydove - Ukrainske - Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk, aimed at expanding the Russian salient in the Pokrovsk direction and eliminating the salient’s vulnerability to Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian forces have already achieved partial success in expanding the southern portion of the Pokrovsk salient and continue to exert efforts to tactically encircle limited Ukrainian positions in rural areas east of Hirnyk and north of Krasnohorivka.

Reports indicate that Russian forces have advanced to the outskirts of Ukrainske and are approaching the outskirts of Hirnyk. Capturing these towns would allow Russian forces to attack Kurakhove — an important Ukrainian defensive hub on the front to the west and southwest of Donetsk — from the north, as well as from the east of Krasnohorivka and Maksymilianivka.

“Russia's intensification near Vuhledar likely aims to pressure the western flank of the Ukrainian defense in the area west and southwest of Donetsk as Russian forces approach Kurakhove on the eastern flank,” the ISW report states.

ISW analysts suggest that Russian offensive operations along the O-0532 highway between Kostiantynivka and Vuhledar open paths for Russian forces that could support both efforts to capture Kurakhove in the north and Russian efforts to encircle and capture Vuhledar in the west.

The ISW report reminds us that in the winter of 2022-2023, Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful offensive operation in western Donetsk, characterized by massive frontal mechanized attacks on Vuhledar itself.

However, Russian forces now appear to be pursuing gradual advances along several complementary lines of attack. This campaign plan has become more common as Russian military efforts have shifted away from attempts at operationally significant breakthroughs through mechanized maneuvers.

Source: Deep State War Map (deepstatemap.live)

The ultimate goal - capturing Pokrovsk

The ISW report also notes that the Russian military command continues to prioritize offensive actions on Pokrovsk. It intends to use the aforementioned secondary efforts, regardless of their success, to pin down Ukrainian forces in the western part of the Donetsk region and prevent the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to reinforce the defense of Pokrovsk.

The Russian command has demonstrated a clear desire to isolate its offensive efforts in the Pokrovsk direction from operational pressure caused by the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region and is likely holding back its remaining operational reserves for capturing Pokrovsk.

ISW is convinced that the Russian command is conducting a theater-wide campaign aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces through sequential offensive pressure and is attempting to replicate these efforts across the entire theater in a more intense manner along the frontline in the Donetsk region.

“Russian forces will not be able to retain the initiative throughout eastern Ukraine indefinitely, and multiple intensified offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast, in addition to the persisting operational pressures caused by Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, will likely cause Russian offensive operations to culminate sooner than the Russian military command intends,” the ISW report concludes.

The situation in the Donetsk direction

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian advances towards Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region have stalled.

In recent days, Russian troops have not advanced a single meter in this direction and are positioned 11 kilometers from the city.

On the night of September 5, the Ukrainian Armed Forces regained lost positions in the village of Maksymilianivka in the Donetsk region.