Russian security forces appear to be urging Putin to intensify war against Ukraine - ISW
Photo: Losses and lack of volunteers may prompt Putin to call up reservists (Getty Images)
Senior Russian security officials seem to assess that Russia needs to intensify its war against Ukraine rather than seek a negotiated exit. They are not ready to give up the war because of heavy losses, according to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Before presenting their conclusion, the analysts recalled a new article by Meduza. It stated that Russian security officials and the Russian military may recognize that Russian troops are not achieving significant territorial success proportional to the losses in manpower and equipment they suffer during the fighting.
It was said that the Russian military command has so far suffered exorbitant personnel losses in exchange for tactical but not operationally significant successes. In turn, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's theory of victory is based on accepting such losses as long as the Russians continue to advance on the territory of Ukraine.
However, Russia's average daily advances slowed by about 9 square kilometers in December 2024, after three consecutive months of increasing territorial gains and casualties in September, October, and November.
In this regard, the Russian military command may be less prepared than Putin to suffer such high losses if the pace of Russian troop advances continues to slow. At the same time, the Russian military and security forces do not seem ready to give up the war because of these losses. Instead, they are allegedly in favor of Putin intensifying Russia's military efforts. In particular, he has called for an additional partial conscription of reservists and an official decision to declare martial law. The military is probably doing this hoping that the battlefield will be filled with manpower and equipment.
ISW's conclusion
Analysts continue to believe that Putin is resisting a partial forced conscription of reservists or further mobilization of the Russian economy, as such decisions would be extremely unpopular with Russians and would further exacerbate Russia's labor shortage and economy.
At the same time, it remains unclear whether a group of Russian military and security officials calling for further mobilization of the labor force and economy will be able to convince Putin to take more drastic measures to satisfy Russian troops in the war against Ukraine.
But the ISW suggests that the growing losses of personnel, as well as problems with the voluntary recruitment of people for the war, may force Putin to conduct involuntary partial conscription of reservists soon.
A few days ago, namely on the morning of January 7, 2025, Russia's losses in the war against Ukraine exceeded 800,000 soldiers since February 24, 2024, as evidenced by the data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia continues to lose almost 2,000 soldiers a day almost every day.
