Russian offensive operation is likely to conclude in coming months - ISW
Illustrative photo (Getty Images)
Russian forces have exhausted many of the reserves they built up for their intensified offensive operation in the summer of 2024. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that the ongoing Russian offensive operation is likely to conclude in the coming months, according to the ISW.
The Russian military command is likely focused on increasing mechanized offensive activity to allow Russian troops to advance across open fields and secure positions in nearby settlements along the front line, which can then be used as a launching pad for preparing and initiating offensive operations aimed at achieving operational goals, such as capturing Kurakhove in western the Donetsk region or taking Pokrovsk.
Autumn weather conditions are also likely to restrict the maneuverability of Russian infantry. The autumn weather will cause many windbreaks, consisting of deciduous trees, to lose most of their leaves, providing less concealment for Russian infantry groups during the fall of 2024 and winter of 2024-2025, making Russian soldiers more vulnerable to reconnaissance and tactical fire from Ukrainian drones.
Russian forces are unlikely to halt their offensive operations after the autumn season of muddy conditions, although adverse weather is expected to diminish the effectiveness of Russian infantry.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the military command are pursuing a strategy aimed at preventing Ukraine from accumulating manpower and material resources to counter the initiative across the entire theater of operations by maintaining constant offensive pressure on Ukrainian troops along the front line. They are likely to continue adhering to this strategy despite seasonal limitations on the maneuverability of mechanized and infantry units.
According to the ISW report from October 9, Russian forces advanced in Vovchansk, Kharkiv region, along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Siversk area, and southern Toretsk. Ukrainian forces made gains during a counterattack east of Pokrovsk, while Russian forces advanced southeast of Pokrovsk.
