Russian offensive near Pokrovsk slows over past two weeks – ISW
Photo: Russian troops may aim to capture Kostiantynivka (Getty Images)
The Russian offensive south and southwest of Pokrovsk has slowed over the past two weeks. This comes as the Russian command may prioritize offensive operations in the spring and summer of 2025 toward Kostiantynivka, the southernmost point of Ukraine's defense line in the Donetsk region, according to a report from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that in December 2024 and January 2025, Russian forces advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk made rapid gains. However, since February 2025, their offensive in the area has slowed.
On February 14, during the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the situation near Pokrovsk had improved in recent days. A representative of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area also reported a decrease in Russian activity.
According to ISW, Russian forces have struggled to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne, likely encountering stronger and more coordinated Ukrainian defenses in these areas. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have launched several counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane, aiming to put Russian positions at risk.
On February 15, a Russian military blogger expressed concern that the slowdown in Russia’s offensive could allow Ukrainian forces to launch significant counterattacks in the coming weeks, potentially threatening Russia’s foothold south of Pokrovsk.
Given Russian losses, ISW suggests that the offensive south of Pokrovsk may continue to slow due to the degradation of Russian units on the front line and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
Citing analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets, ISW also notes that Russian command may prioritize an offensive toward Kostiantynivka in 2025 rather than reinforcing Russian troop concentrations south of Pokrovsk.
Frontline situation
As of 10:00 p.m. on February 15, there were 250 combat clashes along the front line over the past day. Compared to the previous day, Russian forces had intensified their assaults, with offensive actions increasing by two and a half times. The heaviest fighting was reported in the Pokrovsk sector, where Russian forces launched 67 attacks.
