Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar - ISW
Russian military (photo: Getty Images)
Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar on October 1 following reports of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. However, it remains unclear whether the enemy will achieve rapid advancement beyond the settlement soon, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that geolocated footage from September 30 and October 1 shows Russian forces raising flags and operating freely in various parts of Vuhledar. Russian bloggers, meanwhile, claimed that the Russians captured the settlement on the first.
At the same time, a Ukrainian serviceman reported on October 1 that part of the Ukrainian military grouping had conducted a planned withdrawal from Vuhledar to avoid encirclement. According to Russian bloggers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began withdrawing troops at the end of September 30.
They added that the Russians did not completely block Ukrainian retreat routes for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops; however, artillery and drones inflicted unspecified losses on Ukrainian servicemen.
As reported by the ISW, the scale of Ukrainian losses is currently unknown, but widespread reports of a retreat suggest that a larger contingent of Ukrainian forces likely evaded a Russian encirclement that could have resulted in significant casualties.
In addition to the information about the capture of Vuhledar, Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces continued to advance westward from Vodiane, located northeast of Vuhledar.
Earlier, military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko from the Information Resistance group stated that the potential loss of Vuhledar is not critical in terms of the defensive line. The main fortified zone runs to the north, around Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. However, there is one caveat regarding why the loss of Vuhledar could pose a problem.
"The city allowed for fire control over the railway through Volnovakha from Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia. If this control is lost, the Russians will soon be able to resume train operations. This would effectively begin logistical support for the Dnipro and Skhid military groups. And this is the primary issue with losing Vuhledar - enemy logistics will be significantly expanded," Kovalenko explained.
