Russian focus on Selydove slows down possible capture of Pokrovsk
Photo: The Russian army is exhausted near Selydove and is not ready to advance towards Pokrovsk (photo from open sources)
Recently, the Russian army has achieved significant tactical successes in capturing the city of Selydove and its surroundings in the Donetsk region. However, Russian concentration in the southern direction has considerably slowed the potential occupation of Pokrovsk, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It is noted that the enemy's success in Selydove and its outskirts occurred due to the Russians' ability to maintain a large-scale offensive directly toward Pokrovsk, which had been previously identified as an operational objective.
Geolocated videos released on October 22 and 23 demonstrate the advance of Russian troops along Skhidna Street in the northeastern part of Selydove, as well as northward along Berehova and Zakhysnykiv Streets in the east toward the city center.
Geolocated footage published on October 23 also indicates that elements of the Russian 114th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Guards Combined Arms Army, formerly the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic) captured Izmailivka (southeast of Selydove).
Additionally, the geolocated images released on October 23 suggest that the Russian army has also advanced to the northeastern outskirts of Novoselydivka (west of Izmailivka and south of Selydove) and into fields northwest of Tsukuryne (also south of Selydove but north of the Izmailivka-Novoselydivka area).
Russian media reported that Russian forces advanced north of Selydove and reached the outskirts of Vyshneve (to the west of the city) along the C05091 highway. While moving northwest from Tsukuryne, Russians also made territorial gains in Hirnyk (southeast of Selydove). However, the ISW has yet to find confirmation of these claims.
Photo: Assessed control of terrain east of Pokrovsk as of October 23, 2024
The ISW notes that Russian troops' advance toward Selydove, along with territorial gains south and north of the city, may soon compel Ukrainian forces to withdraw from this area to avoid being trapped in a collapsing pocket.
At the same time, ISW highlights that Ukrainian troops appear committed to securely defending the city and have significantly delayed the advance of Russian forces since they first began their assault on the settlement in August 2024.
"Selydove is not Russia's operational objective on this part of the front, notably, and Ukraine's decision to defend the settlement has likely fixed a relatively large contingent of Russian troops on the southern flank of Pokrovsk — which is Russia's primary, and operationally meaningful, objective in the area," the ISW states.
Capture of Pokrovsk is stalled
Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets noted this dynamic. He stated that Russian command in the Pokrovsk direction currently faces several more localized problems that hinder Russian forces' direct capture of Pokrovsk.
Mashovets emphasized that while a large number of Russian forces have been redeployed across the entire Pokrovsk front, significant contingents from the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Central Military District) and the 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) are engaged in attempts to capture Selydove rather than developing attacks on Pokrovsk.
The analyst concluded that the Russian command had created a large operational reserve for an offensive on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. However, these forces have become bogged down in attacks on Selydove and the southern flank of Pokrovsk, which the Russian command had hoped to capture swiftly.
A Russian military blogger and former instructor of the Storm-Z unit agreed with Mashovets' analysis, noting that despite the widely acknowledged importance of Russian forces capturing Pokrovsk, the process is stalled.
The blogger pointed out that the fixation of Russian command on the southern flank of Pokrovsk has led to a "spreading of forces and resources." This, in turn, has resulted in excessive losses among Russian infantry and given the Armed Forces of Ukraine additional time to strengthen Pokrovsk itself further.
Selydove exhausts Russian troops
ISW is convinced that Russian forces may capture Selydove in the coming days, but taking this city does not equate to taking Pokrovsk.
The Institute believes that the capture of Selydove likely exhausted and attrited Russian forces, reducing their combat effectiveness if they received orders to pivot toward Pokrovsk.
"The Ukrainian defense of Pokrovsk and its approaches (namely the rail line and the M-30 highway) has already stymied Russian advances towards the city, and attrition of Russian forces in the area will likely further slow these advances, damaging Russian offensive prospects in the area in the coming weeks," the ISW concludes.
Frontline situation
In February of this year, the Russian army captured the city of Avdiivka near Donetsk. Over more than six months, Russia has taken over a dozen villages to the west and northwest of Donetsk, the city of Vuhledar, and is approaching the regional center — Pokrovsk.
According to ISW maps, Russian troops have been actively advancing in the Pokrovsk and Vuhledar areas in the past day.
