Russian army prepares for breakthrough in 2 districts of Donetsk region - ISW
=Russian troops prepare for a breakthrough in the east (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russian troops are preparing an interconnected operation in Donbas and are redeploying brigades from three areas of the front, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian military command has redeployed units from the 68th Army Corps and the 58th Combined Arms Army to the Toretsk direction from the Kurakhove area and the occupied regions in the western part of Zaporizhzhia.
According to geolocation maps released on May 5, Russian troops recently carried out a mechanized attack with a platoon-sized force and advanced in the eastern and southern parts of the settlement of Myrne (to the southwest of Toretsk). One of the Russian military bloggers reported that the operation involved units from the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (68th Army Corps, Eastern Military District), and that they are advancing toward Malynivka (to the west of Myrne).
The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) first recorded reports of the redeployment of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Toretsk direction at the end of March 2025, following their involvement in combat operations at the Vuhledar and Kurakhove directions. Units of this brigade are likely currently dispersed across several areas of the front.
On May 4, a Russian blogger noted that units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the Russian Armed Forces (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) were engaged in combat in the areas of Stara Mykolayivka and Oleksandropil, as well as conducting sweeps near Kalynivka (all settlements located southwest of Toretsk). The 42nd Motorized Rifle Division has been operating in the Zaporizhzhia direction at least since the summer of 2023, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in that area.
The ISW also recorded reports that, as of May 4, units of this division were still active in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and that the division is likely currently split between the Zaporizhzhia and Toretsk directions.
"The Russian military command previously reinforced offensive operations southwest of Toretsk with elements of the 150th and 20th motorized rifle divisions (both part of the 8th CAA, SMD) in early 2025, and the repeated reinforcing of this effort from three different sectors of the frontline indicates that the Russian military command views this as a priority frontline sector," ISW experts concluded.
Encirclement of Pokrovsk
One of the Russian military bloggers suggested on May 4 that the attacks near Nova Poltavka (northwest of Myrne and northeast of Kalynivka) are part of Russia's long-term efforts to encircle Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk from the east and west.
Russian forces intensified offensive operations in mid-March 2025 to encircle Pokrovsk and capture both Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but they have not made significant progress in this area since late autumn 2024 due to local counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and drone operations.
The ISW suggests that in recent months, Russian forces have shifted their focus to the Novopavlivka direction in an attempt to reach the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, throughout April, the Russians failed to cover the remaining three kilometers to this border, and are likely trying to take advantage of the situation to advance in other areas, including near Nova Poltavka.
"Russian forces may attempt to leverage recent redeployments to Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions as part of a mutually reinforcing effort aimed at eliminating the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk to facilitate advances toward Kostyantynivka from the south and enveloping Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad," the Institute for the Study of War notes.
Situation on the eastern front
The situation on the front in the Donetsk region remains difficult. The enemy continues massive attacks and attempts to advance in the Pokrovsk direction.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched six assaults in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, and Ozaryanivka.
The Russian forces destroyed two out of three water pipelines in the frontline city of Kostiantynivka. Residents have been warned about water supply issues.
Starting from May 5, the time and duration of the curfew in the communities under Ukrainian control in the Donetsk region have been changed.
