Russia won't reach Donetsk's borders until 2027 at current pace – ISW

Kremlin statements and actual offensive pace

The Institute's analysts continue to believe that Russia's victory is not inevitable. The actual pace of the Russian offensive shows that a quick capture of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin's statements about its alleged inevitable success.

The ISW noted that the Kremlin is actively promoting the idea of an allegedly guaranteed military victory and the rapid capture of the Donetsk region, especially after the emergence of information about a 28-point peace plan.

In this way, Moscow is trying to put pressure on Ukraine and the West, creating the impression that its successes on the front are supposedly inevitable.

However, the actual dynamics of the fighting do not confirm such statements. According to the ISW, Russian troops are trying to focus on capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but are advancing extremely slowly.

Slow Russian offensive in Donetsk region

The Russians first entered Pokrovsk on July 31, and since then their average daily progress has been only 0.12 km.

As of November 26, the Russians control approximately 66% of the city, although they have been operating there for over 118 days and have involved at least two army groups. Pokrovsk has an area of 11.5 square miles, and Russian troops have not yet been able to completely occupy it.

In other areas of the front, the Russians have indeed increased their pace of advance since the August summit in Alaska. Between August 15 and November 20, they advanced an average of 9.3 square kilometers per day.

The most noticeable pace of advance has been recorded in the eastern regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, while in the Donetsk region, the advance remains significantly slower.

Prospects for Donetsk region occupation

At the same time, ISW has calculated that if the pace of Russia's advance remains unchanged, the Russians could theoretically reach the borders of the Donetsk region by August 2027.

Analysts emphasize that the Russian command is unlikely to focus all its resources on the Donetsk region, as the Kremlin seeks to maintain pressure across the entire front line.

Despite the Kremlin's statements about the inevitability of victory, the data show that a quick capture of the entire Donetsk region remains unlikely.

US peace plan

The Western press recently revealed a new peace plan to end Russia's war against Ukraine. It consisted of 28 points, most of which contradict Ukrainian interests.

According to this plan, part of the Donbas territory would be transferred to Russia in exchange for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine and the EU, a reduction in the Ukrainian army, the renunciation of long-range weapons, and other concessions.

The Russians were probably involved in the preparation of the plan, as indicated by some strange wording in the document. Western media outlets suggest that part of the text may have been originally written in Russian.