Russia unlikely to use nuclear weapons, Putin’s statements just deterrence tactic - ISW
Photo: Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine (Getty Images)
The statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding his intent to use nuclear weapons are an attempt to deter Western nations. Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere in the world, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW's report cited Putin’s recent threats of nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West, explaining them as an effort to strengthen control over decision-making in the West and prevent partner countries from allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use Western weapons for strikes on Russian territory.
ISW analysts do not rule out that Putin is likely attempting to breathe new life into the Kremlin’s tired information campaign of nuclear saber-rattling and create a new wave of panic among Western politicians at a critical moment in political discussions about Ukraine’s ability to use Western-supplied weapons.
The report noted that Kremlin officials regularly invoke thinly veiled threats of nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West during key moments in Western political debates on further military assistance to Ukraine. Specifically, this tactic is being used in the current debates over Ukraine’s right to use Western-supplied systems to carry out long-range strikes on Russian military targets. The goal is to instill fear in decision-makers.
“ISW has long identified Russia's nuclear saber-rattling as part of the Kremlin's effort to promote Western self-deterrence and not as indicative of Russia's willingness to use nuclear weapons. ISW continues to assess that Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere,” the ISW states.
Kremlin’s nuclear threats
Throughout Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons.
On September 25, a meeting of the Russian Security Council took place, during which Putin announced changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine.
Specifically, Putin proposed that Russia could use nuclear weapons even in the event of a massive launch of strategic or tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, and even drones toward Russia, the crossing of Russian borders by these weapons, and in the event of aggression against Belarus.
Earlier, CIA Director William Burns warned Western politicians against being intimidated by Russia’s routine nuclear saber-rattling.
US military officials are convinced that Russia will not use even tactical nuclear weapons, let alone strategic ones.
Read more about what the nuclear doctrine is, what changes Putin has announced, and how Ukraine is reacting to it in RBC-Ukraine's article.
