Russia-Ukraine war scale prevents either side from winning it with single operation - ISW
Illustrative photo (RBC-Ukraine, Vitalii Nosach)
The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, like the Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, is not considered a decisive military maneuver that will help win the war, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces cannot conduct decisive operations that will single-handedly secure victory in the war. Instead, they must undertake a series of sequential operations with limited operational objectives that, while not achieving immediate victory, cumulatively may meet strategic goals, according to the authors of the report "Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War," wherein Dr. Frederick W. Kagan and Dr. Kimberly Kagan.
They suggest that it is too early to assess the consequences and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the current Russian offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, the significance of these operations will not emerge in isolation but will be understood in the context of a series of subsequent Russian and Ukrainian campaigns.
Both Ukraine and Russia are capable of establishing deep defensive positions and reserves that can prevent any single campaign from achieving strategic war objectives before the conflict reaches its climax. Analysts believe that Russia has sufficient combat power to secure its borders if desired, albeit at the expense of other objectives.
Russia and Ukraine can generally create defensive positions at some distance behind the front lines and stabilize the front even in the event of a successful breach.
"Effective Ukrainian and Russian campaign design therefore requires forethought and planning for multiple successive operations that each set conditions for the subsequent operation," the report states. According to its authors, neither side can conduct continuous operations without interruption. At the same time, operational pauses or reductions in operational tempo allow the opposing side to compete and seize the initiative.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated that since Ukraine cannot conduct unlimited strikes with Western long-range weapons on Russian territory, "there is a need to use the Armed Forces to liberate these border areas from the Russian military contingent that strikes at Ukraine."
US Democratic Senator of Arizona, Mark Kelly, believes that Ukraine's decision to confront Russian aggression by attacking Russia itself could alter the course of the war.
