Russia trying to scare Europe with war threats but lacks resources
Photo: Russian leader Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russia is trying to intimidate Europeans with the very possibility of war. At the same time, it does not have sufficient resources for full-scale combat operations in the Baltic states, according to Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
According to him, Russia’s hybrid provocations — including incursions by military aircraft into the airspace of Baltic countries and claims about alleged “Western plans to seize Kaliningrad” — are part of an information campaign.
Kovalenko stressed that such actions are elements of “information noise” aimed at creating panic in European societies and shifting responsibility for possible escalation onto Western politicians.
At the same time, according to the Center’s assessment, Russia currently lacks the resources needed to wage a full-scale war in the Baltic states.
“Until 2028, Russia will not have the resources for a full-scale war in the Baltics,” he said.
He also added that hybrid provocations, particularly in airspace, have already begun and may continue.
Earlier, Russian propaganda circulated claims that the Baltic states and Poland had allegedly allowed Ukraine to use their airspace for strikes on Russian ports near St. Petersburg.
Russia also issued “warnings” to Baltic countries.
In addition, Russia’s Defense Ministry published a list of alleged addresses in Europe where companies linked to joint drone production with Ukraine are located, hinting at possible “retaliatory measures.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia may be restricting internet access not only to control information, but also to prevent public unrest amid a potential large-scale mobilization.
In his view, the goal could be both to intensify the war against Ukraine and to increase pressure on the Baltic states.
Lithuania, for its part, said that Zelenskyy’s assessments are exaggerated and described them as “intimidating rhetoric.”
Estonian intelligence has also assessed the likelihood of a Russian attack on NATO in 2026 or 2027.
