Russia tests its ability to mobilize troops, WSJ reports
Mobilization in Russia is prompting men to flee the country in large numbers (photo: Getty Images)
The Kremlin is testing how its military system is ready to absorb a large influx of recruits. No final decision has been made on a new wave of mobilization in Russia, but heavy battlefield losses could force the Russian leadership to take that step, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Preparations in Kaliningrad, recruitment problems
As the outlet says, Russian military officers from Saint Petersburg inspected the Kaliningrad exclave last month, assessing readiness to mobilize local residents and arrangements for their housing, food, and weapons.
According to Western intelligence, similar readiness checks are now taking place across Russia to assess the military's capacity to accommodate new recruits.
The main reason Russia may announce another mobilization is a manpower shortage. In recent months, Moscow has failed to recruit enough volunteers and contract soldiers to make up for its heavy battlefield losses.
US and European officials say the Kremlin is unlikely to announce a draft before parliamentary elections in late September.
Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin's goal of capturing the entire Donbas leaves him with few alternatives.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, says it would not be decisive for Russia, and it's already too late this year, but it could become a factor in 2027. If Russians have specific objectives, such as capturing the rest of the Donbas, they should have mobilized several months ago.
Panic among Russians, pressure on economy
Although recruitment officially remains voluntary for now, rumors of a new draft have already caused concern among the Russian public. Men are actively looking for ways to leave the country.
In particular, the Verkhny Lars border crossing between Russia and Georgia recorded a record daily flow of more than 20,000 people. Neighboring countries such as Georgia and Armenia are once again seeing rental prices rise.
At the same time, analysts say a large-scale mobilization would deliver another blow to Russia's economy.
Alexander Kolyandr, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, says people need to be fed, housed, armed, and paid, and that they are taken out of an already constrained labor market. That will put enormous pressure on the budget.
To avoid a social panic similar to the September 2022 mobilization, Russian authorities have created a unified electronic database of draft-age men.
This will allow electronic draft notices to be sent out and mobilization to be carried out gradually, in small groups.
Mobilization in Russia
As previously reported, Russia is already preparing the legal framework and checking infrastructure for a possible recruitment of additional forces.
In particular, several Russian regions are preparing training grounds and testing their ability to accommodate and provide logistical support for large numbers of recruits.
In addition, after elections, the Kremlin plans to carry out peripheral mobilization to send an additional 300,000 people to the front.
The draft focuses on regions and outlying areas to avoid social tensions in Russia's major central cities.
