Russia struck Ukraine with new Oreshnik missile to send message to the West, ISW analysts say
Photo: Russian president Vladimir Putin (kremlin.ru)
Russia's strike on Ukraine with its new Oreshnik ballistic missile was an information provocation. Its purpose is to send a message, particularly to the West, as the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysts told RBC-Ukraine.
“The November 21 strike was a Kremlin response, but it is primarily an information provocation. The strike was meant to send a message. Russia conducted an ostentatious IRBM (not ICBM) strike against Ukraine in order to intimidate Ukraine and the West and deter Western countries from supporting Ukraine,” the analysts said.
The ISW recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin has explicitly threatened to attack Western countries that support Ukraine's intention to strike deep into Russian territory. They linked the Oreshnik strike to Moscow's nuclear capabilities.
According to analysts, such steps are an intensification of Russia's information operation, in which Moscow is trying to deter Western military support for Ukraine through explicit threats and constant reminders of nuclear weapons.
“Putin's November 21 rhetoric is consistent with prior official Kremlin statements defining 'red lines' that the Kremlin has attempted to use to deter Western states from supporting Ukraine.,” the analysts add.
Read more about how Ukraine will benefit from the West's permission to use missiles on Russian territory and whether the Oreshnik strike was Russia's response in RBC-Ukraine's article.
Strike with Oreshnik missile
On November 21, the Russians launched a missile strike on Dnipro. The Ukrainian Air Force said that it was the first time that Russians had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine.
Later, Russian leader Putin said that the Russian army had test-fired the Oreshnik medium-range missile system. Ukraine's Defence Intelligence clarified that the new missile was fired from the Kedr missile system.
As the head of the DIU Kyrylo Budanov explained, it is actually the same missile. Putin used the name of the Oreshnik missile program, but the missile launch system is called Kedr.
After the attack, Putin also threatened new strikes against Ukraine. He said that “decision-making centers” could be attacked.
