Russia simulates new offensive in north of Ukraine — ISW
Photo: Russia simulates a new offensive in northern Ukraine (Getty Images)
Russia is conducting a cognitive warfare campaign, using small-scale cross-border attacks in previously inactive areas of the front in northern Ukraine. The goal is to try to convince the West that the front lines are collapsing, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Information manipulation in Sumy region
Analysts drew attention to the Russian Defense Ministry's statement on February 8 about the alleged capture of the village of Sydorivka, northwest of Sumy, near the state border. Russian military bloggers presented this as part of a plan to create a buffer zone in the north of the Sumy region.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that there is no visual evidence to support the Russian military's claims about the capture of the village.
According to analysts, Sydorivka is located near a previously inactive section of the front line, where Russian troops began small-scale attacks only in December 2025. At the same time, according to military bloggers, the Russian command plans to form assault groups to attempt to advance deeper into the Sumy region.
ISW notes that the Kremlin is even involving specialized units in these actions, in particular personnel from the Strategic Missile Forces, using them as infantry.
Goals of information campaign
Analysts note that the Russian command has previously used specialized personnel from the Strategic Missile Forces as assault units in the Sumy direction.
At the end of December 2025, the Kremlin initiated a large-scale cognitive campaign, using cross-border attacks in the north of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions to influence the negotiation process to end the war.
As part of this campaign, statements were actively disseminated about the capture of such settlements as Hrabovske, Komarivka, Bila Bereza, and Popivka, as well as about the advance to Sotnytskyi Kozachok northwest of Kharkiv.
At the same time, ISW does not see any signs of Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive from the north.
According to the institute's assessment, these attacks have not led to any operationally significant results and are more propaganda than military in nature.
The ISW believes that the Kremlin is trying to present limited border skirmishes as the beginning of a new major offensive in order to reinforce the narrative of the inevitability of Russia's victory and force Ukraine and the West to make concessions.
Experts also note that the Russian command's intention to prepare for a potential summer offensive, even despite possible difficulties, indicates the Kremlin's unwillingness to end the war through negotiations in the near future.
Situation in Sumy region
In December, Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border near the village of Hrabovske in the Sumy region and kidnapped residents, taking them to Russian territory.
According to the Ukrainian military, the Russian occupiers gained a foothold in Hrabovske.
In the first days after the breakthrough in Hrabovske, Russians tried to advance deeper into the Sumy region, but all attempts failed.
They also failed to advance in other areas of the border. Currently, the Russians are strengthening their positions and digging in in the captured village.
