Russia’s war in Ukraine tightens Moscow’s grip on Belarus - Foreign Intelligence Service
Belarusian and Russian military personnel (Photo: Х_armscontrol)
Russia is increasing its influence on Belarus’s internal political processes, aiming to reduce the risk of any unexpected changes in the regime, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Moscow seeks to maintain full control over Minsk’s strategic decisions to prevent any deviation from a pro-Russian course, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine notes.
Experts cite Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau, which reports that Moscow is responding ever more harshly even to limited attempts by Belarus to pursue a more independent policy, including efforts to restore economic ties with Europe - moves that automatically reduce Russian influence.
According to the SAB, any change of power in Belarus without Kremlin approval is seen as a potential threat. Russia is therefore working to establish a system in which the country’s future leader remains structurally dependent on a pro-Russian course.
Despite lacking direct control over Alexander Lukashenko’s decisions, both sides aim to prevent a repeat of the mass protests of 2020. Moscow will block any steps by Minsk toward closer ties with the EU if they contradict Russian interests.
Military cooperation
Experts note that economic interaction between the two regimes is increasingly taking on a military character.
Around 500 Belarusian enterprises are integrated into Russia’s defense-industrial complex, including a project to build a drone factory with a capacity of up to 100,000 units per year. Additionally, Belarus supplies Russia with roughly 480,000 artillery and missile rounds annually.
The SAB emphasizes that the war in Ukraine has shown Belarus’s civilian economy effectively serves Moscow’s military needs. This allows Minsk to avoid direct involvement in combat operations while still reaping economic benefits, a role expected to grow in the future.
How Russia uses Belarus
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is using Belarusian territory to launch attacks on Ukraine and to pressure Europe. According to him, Russia deploys Shahed kamikaze drones and coordinates strikes specifically from Belarusian soil.
The president also noted that Belarus’s industry supports Russia’s war effort, while trade connections help Moscow acquire components needed to create threats in Europe.
Zelenskyy referred to the events in Belarus in 2020, emphasizing that the Belarusian people did not receive sufficient international support at the time, and that the consequences of that are being felt today.
Previously, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said that the country deployed the Oreshnik missile system in response to Western aggression. He added that Belarus does not intend to fight against Western countries, stressing that this will never happen.
