Russia's oil refining could fall 30% below pre-war levels for 18 months
Photo: Russian oil refinery hit in a Ukrainian strike (Russian media)
The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for Russian oil refining over the next 18 months to 4 million barrels per day. That is 30% below the level recorded before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.
Russia's oil refining industry continues to deteriorate due to systematic and targeted Ukrainian drone strikes. The repeated attacks, combined with the "patchwork nature of repairs," are creating a cumulative negative impact on Russia's energy system.
"Risks remain that even this more cautious assessment may yet understate the problems that Russia’s refining complex faces. Longer lead times to source replacement parts and the approach of colder weather could compound the stress placed on the Russian system," the agency says.
In August, Russian oil refineries came under at least 22 strikes, the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.
"Ukrainian forces are using multiple drone waves against single sites, overwhelming protective netting and air defences. The targeting also appears more precise," the report said.
Drones are increasingly hitting secondary processing units at Russian oil refineries, which can take around 6–8 months to replace or restart. At the same time, international sanctions on Russia's energy sector are limiting access to replacement equipment, further complicating repair efforts.
Earlier, Ukrainian drones struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in Russia overnight on September 8. Local residents reported explosions and a fire.
On September 7, the Ryazan Oil Refinery was also targeted. At the same time, Ukrainian drones struck oil refineries in the Perm region and Tatarstan.
