Russia's new crisis: Fuel supply plummets, Kremlin holds emergency talks
Photo: Russia is facing a fuel crisis (Getty Images)
Russia has found itself on the brink of an energy crisis due to the decline in profitability of oil refineries (ORs), sanctions, and logistical difficulties. The Kremlin is urgently convening a meeting to avoid a fuel shortage, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to intelligence, the Russian economy has faced a new blow due to the drop in global oil prices, Western sanctions, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
It is noted that the Kremlin is urgently convening a meeting because of the alarming decline in the volume of transportation of oil products within the country. The government of the Russian Federation is concerned about a possible fuel shortage in the domestic market. This situation is especially worrisome during the critical period of the sowing campaign for the agricultural sector.
Reasons for fuel problems
As the intelligence found out, the reduction in fuel supply within Russia resulted from a decline in the profitability of oil refineries (ORs), which are a key element in the energy chain of the Russian Federation. The reduction of domestic oil transportation is due to:
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An increase in tariffs for oil pumping – from January 1, 2025, they increased by 9.9%, directly hitting the domestic market.
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An increase in excise taxes: AI-95 gasoline rose to 212.8 dollars per ton, and diesel – to 150.9 dollars. This led to the domestic market becoming less attractive for producers, increasingly focusing on exports or reducing production.
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A reduction in subsidies aimed at maintaining internal fuel prices. In the first four months of 2025, their volume decreased by more than 2.5 times. This means that state support for oil refiners is rapidly weakening.
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Logistical difficulties and a shortage of rolling stock for transporting oil on Russian railways.
Fuel crisis and its consequences
The reduction in fuel supplies, according to intelligence, is a clear signal of systemic destabilization of the Russian economy.
The industrial sector, farmers, and logistics may find themselves in conditions of fuel famine, which in turn will lead to an inflationary surge and social discontent.
If the current dynamics continue, Moscow may face the most serious systemic challenge to the energy system since the collapse of the USSR, the intelligence notes.
Problems due to falling oil prices
Earlier, British intelligence also recently made a discouraging forecast for Russia. Experts concluded that Moscow faces a sharp increase in the budget deficit.
The UK Ministry of Defence stated that Russia’s ability to finance the planned budget in 2025 may be under threat. The reason is the recent drop in oil prices.
