Russia ramps up daytime strikes on Ukraine to force capitulation ahead of winter – ISW
Photo: Russian leader Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Russia is intensifying daytime attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure in an effort to force Kyiv to capitulate ahead of winter, while also seeking to divide European countries and sideline them from peace negotiations, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that the October 29 attacks were part of Russia's ongoing efforts to carry out daytime strikes aimed at making everyday life in Ukraine unbearable, causing significant civilian casualties, and damaging the country's economy.
Moscow is seeking to impose additional costs on the Ukrainian population ahead of the winter of 2026-2027, as the Kremlin likely believes that these long-range strikes could divert attention from Ukraine's recent battlefield successes and ultimately force Ukraine to capitulate.
According to the ISW, Russian forces have increased the lethality of their strike campaign throughout 2026 by exploiting gaps in Ukraine's air defense system and deploying new technologies, including the Banderol loitering munitions and jet-powered drones.
Analysts recalled that Russia's daytime attacks on October 29 killed at least 19 people and injured at least 82 across Ukraine.
In particular, a Russian jet-powered drone struck a commuter train at a railway station in Dnipro, killing at least 15 people and injuring another 14.
In addition, a strike involving Banderol-type loitering munitions hit a residential area in Chernihiv, killing two children and injuring at least 31 people. A drone strike on a residential building in Kremenchuk, Poltava region, killed three people and injured 32 residents, including six children.
The ISW also noted that on October 29, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin attempted to shift responsibility for the humanitarian catastrophe in the temporarily occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson region onto Ukraine, making false claims that Ukraine had mined the access roads.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets and Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova confirmed that a ceasefire had been observed in Oleshky for 54 hours, beginning on the morning of October 27.
The ISW stressed that full responsibility for the humanitarian crisis in the city lies with the Russian occupation administration, which stopped delivering food and medicine there in May 2026, rejected Ukrainian proposals for local ceasefires three times, and deliberately shot down Ukrainian drones delivering food to residents in September 2026.
Commenting on the diplomatic front, ISW experts said the Kremlin was using Putin's October 27 phone call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to deepen divisions within Europe and weaken its negotiating position.
Statements made on October 28-29 by Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, and Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova insisting that negotiations take place exclusively in a trilateral format involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States demonstrate Moscow's intention to sideline European leaders from the peace process until Russia's December 2021 ultimatums are implemented. Those demands called for NATO's presence to be rolled back to its 1997 borders.
In addition, the Kremlin is shaping the information environment to pressure Ukraine into making unilateral concessions before substantive negotiations begin.
In particular, Ushakov announced that a trilateral meeting of delegations from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia would take place in Abu Dhabi after November 4. He said the exact date would depend on the situation on the front line and on whether Ukraine's Armed Forces refrained from carrying out long-range strikes on Russian territory during Russia's holiday celebrations, despite Moscow's repeated refusal to agree to a mutual moratorium on long-range attacks.
In this way, Russia is seeking to portray Kyiv as an obstacle to a peaceful settlement if the Ukrainian side rejects the Kremlin's preliminary unilateral conditions.
Daytime strikes on Ukraine on October 29
As a reminder, on the morning of October 29, a Russian jet-powered drone struck the platform at Dnipro railway station, where passenger train No. 866, traveling from Dnipro to Zaporizhzhia, was standing.
An elevated threat level had been announced before the strike, but many people remained on the platform. At least 15 people were killed.
That same day, Russia launched a series of strikes on civilian targets in Dnipro, Chernihiv, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia. Children were among those killed.
In the evening, locals shared a video showing entire neighborhoods in Dnipro plunging into darkness within seconds after a powerful flash.
