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Russia preparing for war with NATO, could happen within 10 years, Estonian intelligence warns

Russia preparing for war with NATO, could happen within 10 years, Estonian intelligence warns Photo: Estonian intelligence believes Russia is preparing for war with NATO (Getty Images)
Author: Liliana Oleniak

Russia is already preparing for the next war. This is likely to be a conflict with NATO within the next 10 years, according to Estonian intelligence officials.

The leaders of Estonia's foreign and military intelligence say in an interview with Foreign Policy that two years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is restructuring and expanding its army, expecting a conflict with NATO within 10 years.

Estonian intelligence officials note that Russia has managed to reconfigure the economy to a military orientation, so "everything is more or less going to the plan again" for Russia.

According to Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russian military leaders have learned from the mistakes of the initial stages of the war and are adapting with uncharacteristic speed.

"It seems that the Russians are, in principle, turning into a learning organization in the military," he says.

Rosin adds that Russians have always solved problems through mass participation. In his opinion, the Russian reforms are likely to lead to the creation of a low-tech Soviet-style army with great firepower and artillery.

The Estonian intelligence officer believes that a war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable, but much can still be done to contain the Kremlin.

"A lot of the future scenarios depend on our activities in the West... The concrete task at hand is to make Ukraine successful in this war because the future in Europe depends heavily on the outcome of this war," Rosin says.

Probability of war between Russia and NATO

Earlier, the German news agency Bild published a scenario of German military exercises, during which the German armed forces are preparing for a hybrid attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank.

A NATO official commented on the Bild article and said that the Alliance had received a training scenario, which is always an imaginary situation to test military capabilities in a particular area.

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense commented on the situation. They stated that there is currently no threat of a Russian attack on NATO, as Moscow is focused on the war against Ukraine.

Finland's new President recently said he believed it was unlikely that Russia would attack his country, which is now a NATO member.