Russia must redeploy forces from Ukraine for counteroffensive in Kursk region - ISW

The Russian military command has more than tripled the number of troops in the Kursk region due to the capture of several settlements in the region by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The report recalls a statement by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said that Russian forces have concentrated 40,000 troops in the Kursk region and plan to amass a total of 60,000 to 70,000 servicemen in this area.

The report also cites data from Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets, according to which the Kursk group of the Northern Grouping of Forces' Kursk Group, responsible for the Hlushkovsky, Korenevsky, Sudzhansky, Rylsky, Lgovsky, Kurchatovsky, and Kursky raions, includes about 61 Russian units of varying sizes, with approximately 35,500 servicemen.

At the same time, the report notes that the exact number of personnel in each Russian security structure, including the National Guard, border guards, regular units, irregular units, and conscripted servicemen, remains unknown.

According to ISW analysts, the increase in Russian forces in the Kursk region indicates that the operational pressure caused by the invasion has forced the Russian military command to redeploy units from Ukraine to the Kursk region and transfer newly formed forces from Russia to this region instead of the front in Ukraine.

"A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region will very likely require even more manpower and materiel than Russia has already concentrated in the area and therefore additional Russian redeployments from Ukraine," the ISW report states.

Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in the Kursk region

In early August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the state border between Ukraine and Russia and began capturing settlements in the Kursk region. Currently, Ukrainian forces control about a hundred villages in the region, including the city of Sudzha.

On September 12, the Russians launched a counteroffensive operation in the Kursk region. However, there has been no significant progress in these actions so far.

On September 14, Vadym Mysnyk, spokesman of the Ukrainian army command Siversk, responsible for the Kursk operation, stated that at the start of the operation, 11,000 Russian servicemen were deployed in the Kursk region. Currently, between 30,000 and 45,000 servicemen are stationed in the region.

Recently, Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Airborne Forces unit in the Kursk region.

Zelenskyy emphasized that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will maintain control over the territories in the Kursk region until Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations.