Russia may struggle to maintain oil production - International Energy Agency warns
Photo: Moscow is unable to maintain oil production (Getty Images)
The International Energy Agency stated that the decline in exports of crude oil and oil products from Russia calls into question the country’s ability to maintain its production capacities, according to Bloomberg.
"Volumes of both crude and products remained at exceptionally weak levels in June, at a five-year seasonal low," the Paris-based agency reported.
According to its data, flows have deteriorated for most of 2024 and 2025. This "raises questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its upstream production capacity," the IEA statement says.
According to the IEA, last month daily supplies of crude oil from Russia stabilized at the level of 4.68 million barrels, while daily exports of oil products decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels.
Classified data
The country, which is among the world’s top three oil producers, classified data on production and exports after the invasion of Ukraine, which complicates independent assessment of the state of its extraction industry.
In addition to IEA reports, market analysts rely on data from vessel export tracking, refinery loading estimates, and estimates of the country’s compliance with the OPEC+ production quota to understand how the Russian industry is functioning.
Bloomberg’s vessel tracking data also indicates a decline in the volume of Russian crude oil exports by sea, which last month reached the lowest level since February.
Crude oil production in Russia (excluding condensate) in June amounted to 9.19 million barrels per day, which exceeds the OPEC+ target for that month by 140,000 barrels per day, the IEA reports.
According to the IEA, despite the fall in the total volume of oil supplies abroad, Russia’s export revenue in June increased by more than $800 million to $13.6 billion, which is 6.4% more than in May, aided by rising average global oil prices amid supply concerns due to tensions in the Middle East.
Russia’s revenues from oil sales in June 2025 fell to a two-year minimum.
Rising war expenditures against Ukraine and falling oil prices are putting pressure on Russia’s budget. Liquid assets in Russia’s National Wealth Fund, the country’s rainy-day reserve, decreased in May by 14% to $35.7 billion.
