RF may prepare offensive on two regions of Ukraine, but lacks strength to seize major city - Ukraine's Intelligence
Photo: Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, suggests that Russia is preparing for an offensive in Kharkiv and Sumy regions in late May or early June. Russia doesn't have enough strength to seize Kharkiv or Sumy, but "a quick operation to come in and come out" is possible, states Skibitskyi in his interview with The Economist.
He says the timing of the offensive depends on the strength of Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas, but suggests that Russia's main push will begin at the “end of May or beginning of June”.
Skibitskyi says Russia has a total of 514,000 ground troops involved in the Ukrainian operation, which is higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by NATO's top commander, General Christopher Cavoli.
According to the Deputy Chief of Defense Intelligence, Russia's northern grouping, based on the border with Kharkiv, currently has 35,000 soldiers, but Russia intends to increase it to 50,000-70,000. Russia is also “generating a division of reserves” (i.e., 15,000 to 20,000 troops) in central Russia, which it can add to the main effort.
Skibitskyi believes that this is not enough for an operation to take a large city, but could be sufficient for a smaller task.
“A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe. But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this.”
