Russia may exhaust its war resources by 2028, Ukraine's intelligence chief says
Oleh Ivashchenko (photo: facebook.com zelenskyy.official)
Russia could face the depletion of its military and economic resources to continue the war against Ukraine as early as 2028, according to a forecast by Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, in an interview with The Times.
"Russia has military and economic resources for the next year, but we estimate it will end in 2028," Ivashchenko said.
According to the intelligence chief, Russia recruits between 1,000 and 1,200 people every day. At the same time, Russian army losses on the front line are significantly higher, amounting to around 1,400–1,500 service members per day. According to Ivashchenko's estimate, approximately 60% of them are killed.
If this trend continues, the Russian army could lose another 765,800 people over the next 18 months. Of these, according to the calculations cited in the interview, 459,480 will be killed, and 306,320 will be wounded. As a result, by 2028, nearly 10% of men in Russia between the ages of 25 and 49 could be affected by the war.
Fewer and fewer people willing to fight
Ivashchenko believes that the massive losses are affecting not only the state of the Russian army but also the population's attitude toward the war. According to him, willingness to support the fighting is declining both in Russian society and among service members.
"Also, the morale of the Russian population is very low: most people do not really want war," Ivashchenko said.
According to intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko, Russia may intensify combined attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this fall and winter.
Ballistic and cruise missiles, jet-powered Shahed drones, as well as new loitering munitions, could be used in the strikes. The enemy's main targets are expected to be energy facilities and thermal power plants.
