Russia loses six times more troops in Ukraine than it mobilizes - The Guardian

By Western officials' estimates, Russia has continued actively replenishing its army ranks over the past two months. However, even recruiting around a thousand people a day has proven insufficient to replace the troops killed or wounded in Ukraine.

"We estimate that the gap between the number of people Russia is losing to casualties and the number they’re being able to recruit is around 6,000 a month at the moment," one Western official said.

According to the official, the response of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to such losses has been further escalation of the war and intensified attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

Since early July, Russia has launched over 360 missiles, capitalising on Kyiv's shortage of air defence systems. The official assessed that Moscow is attempting to break Ukrainian morale by destroying energy infrastructure ahead of winter.

Kremlin faces limited options

Western officials believe Putin has limited capacity to offset significant battlefield losses through additional recruitment. At the same time, a fresh mass mobilisation would pose serious political and economic risks for the Kremlin, The Guardian writes.

Following the previous mobilisation in autumn 2022, some one million people left Russia, a large proportion of them highly skilled specialists. Fewer than half have since returned.

Furthermore, it remains unclear whether the Russian military would be able to absorb several hundred thousand new troops in the event of another mobilisation. Shortages of equipment and officers are cited among the challenges.

What Putin is aiming for

According to Western officials, Russia is continuing a war of attrition, banking on Ukraine's allies gradually scaling back their support.

Moscow may be counting on Russian threats and intimidation to heighten public anxiety in European countries and influence their governments' decisions.

At the same time, The Guardian's sources believe that, despite the continued real threat from Russia, the Kremlin will seek to avoid direct confrontation with NATO. One Western official noted that Russia's hostile rhetoric and threats are in line with its longstanding military doctrine, aimed at exploiting an adversary's fears and influencing political decision-making.

The official said Russia still retains the capacity to harm the UK, including through cyberattacks or physical attacks on civilian targets carried out by its agents. However, Western officials assess that Putin will seek to keep such actions in check to avoid triggering a more direct conflict with NATO.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian leader Vladimir Putin may order his troops to invade NATO territory within the next few years. Days ago, US President Donald Trump said he was not concerned about the threat of a Russian attack on NATO countries.