Russia launched Oreshnik missile to deter Western troop deployment in Ukraine — ISW
Photo: Russia struck with Oreshnik to deter the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine (Getty Images)
Russia struck the Lviv region with an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile on January 9 to intimidate the West and deter the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts believe that Russia deliberately chose the Lviv region for the Oreshnik strike to show the West its capabilities.
ISW calls the attack part of “Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling” aimed at intimidating Western countries so that they would not deploy troops in Ukraine.
The Institute recalled that the countries of the Coalition of the Willing agreed at a meeting in Paris on January 6 to send their troops after the ceasefire as part of security guarantees for Ukraine.
The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that such Western security guarantees would be “unacceptable” to Russia and that foreign troops would be “legitimate targets” for Russian troops.
Analysts note that the use of the Oreshnik, which can carry a nuclear warhead, to strike the Lviv region is a threat to the Coalition of the Willing and an attempt to deter the deployment of foreign troops, which would likely take place in western Ukraine.
ISW also recalled that Russian president Vladimir Putin first used the Oreshnik against Ukraine in November 2024 in response to Ukrainian strikes with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. At that time, the Kremlin also tried to intimidate the West and deter military aid to Ukraine.
Strike on the Lviv region
On the night of January 9, a series of explosions were heard in the Lviv region after reports that Russia had launched missiles from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Arkhangelsk region.
After that, local authorities announced that a critical infrastructure facility had been hit and that gas supplies had been partially cut off.
Later, the Western Air Command reported that the ballistic missile that struck the Lviv region was flying at a speed of 13,000 kilometers per hour, and its type would be determined after examining all its elements.
The Russians confirmed the launch of a ballistic missile at Lviv, mentioned a fake story about an “attack on Putin's residence,” and used it to explain their latest terrorist attack.
The Air Force did not confirm the strike with an Oreshnik, but indicated the launch site as the Kapustin Yar training ground, where missiles of this type are based.
