Russia increases oil revenues despite sanctions, IEA reports
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Russia's revenue from crude oil and petroleum product sales in January increased by $900 million compared to December, reaching $15.8 billion. This was due to rising oil prices and stable export volumes despite sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report.
The agency stated that last month, all Russian oil was sold at prices exceeding the Western-imposed cap of $60 per barrel.
The United States introduced its most extensive sanctions package in early January against Russian oil companies and tankers transporting Russian oil due to Moscow's war against Ukraine. Some of these sanctions will take effect later in February or March.
"Fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran roiled markets at the start of the year but they have yet to materially impact global oil supply," the report states.
According to IEA estimates, US restrictions have targeted blacklisted tankers that transported about 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day and approximately 200,000 barrels of petroleum products per day last year.
The IEA noted that despite extensive Western energy sanctions, Moscow is likely to find new fraudulent shipping methods to sustain this lucrative export.
According to the IEA, Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports last month remained roughly at December levels, amounting to about 7.4 million barrels per day.
Oil production in Russia increased by 100,000 barrels per day last month to 9.2 million barrels per day, exceeding the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day.
In 2025, Russia's oil production is expected to average 9.25 million barrels per day, just 150,000 barrels per day lower than last month’s forecast.
Russian crude oil exports have received some support from reduced domestic oil consumption amid repeated successful Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, according to IEA data. The agency has lowered its forecast for Russian crude oil refining in the first quarter by 170,000 barrels per day due to these attacks.
According to Reuters, Russia will be forced to cut oil production in the coming months as US sanctions make it harder to access tankers for shipments to Asia. Additionally, Ukrainian drone attacks are crippling the operation of its refineries.