Russia fears that West can allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons - ISW
Employees of the Russian National Guard and the Kremlin (photo: Getty Images)
The Russian authorities are making significant efforts to prevent the West from allowing Ukraine to use the long-range weapons provided to strike Russia. This indicates deep concern on the part of Russia, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Before concluding, analysts refer to a recent article from The New York Times. On September 26, the newspaper reported, citing unnamed American officials, that US intelligence assessments downplay the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's war efforts using long-range missile systems provided by the US, UK, and France. These intelligence conclusions are linked to the limited availability of such weapons in Ukraine and uncertainty regarding future deliveries of more advanced systems.
The NYT also noted that officials in the US military and the Biden administration, who support changing the policy, stated that the weapons supplied by the West would allow Ukraine to strike more distant Russian bases and ammunition depots. This, in turn, would force Russian forces to relocate ammunition depots, command posts, combat helicopters, and other assets out of the reach of Western missiles. Officials added that this would significantly complicate Russian supply lines in Ukraine.
Conclusion from ISW
The ISW notes that even a small number of successful Ukrainian long-range strikes can have an asymmetric effect, prompting Russian forces to relocate significant military and supply assets beyond the reach of Western weapons and further from the front line, complicating Russian logistics near Ukraine.
As an example, during the summer of 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a series of strikes with HIMARS on Russian ammunition depots in occupied Ukraine. This forced the Russians to disperse their ammunition storage, which in turn reduced the effectiveness of Russian logistics.
Based on this, the ISW concluded that Russian authorities are likely concerned about how relocating ammunition depots and other critical storage facilities further from the front line and beyond the reach of Western systems will impact Russia's offensive capabilities in Ukraine.
Furthermore, analysts indicate that it seems the Russian authorities are making significant rhetorical efforts to prevent the West from conducting another substantial strike campaign like the previous one.
