Russia fakes battlefield gains to undermine Ukraine support — ISW
Photo: Reports on the Russian army's rate of advance are exaggerated (Getty Images)
The Russian Ministry of Defense's exaggerated claims about the capture of Ukrainian territory are part of the Kremlin's strategy to convince Ukraine and its partners of an allegedly inevitable defeat. The actual extent of Russian advances is significantly less than what has been reported, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
According to the ISW's assessment, the Russian Ministry of Defense's statement is part of a long-term Kremlin strategy to use exaggerated data on frontline advances to convince Ukraine and its partners that the Ukrainian defense is supposedly on the verge of collapse, and that Kyiv should capitulate in the face of Russia's so-called inevitable victory.
Analysts note that such rhetoric intensified particularly during the height of the Russian State Duma elections and on the eve of the opening of the UN General Assembly in New York. That is, precisely when the international community's attention to the issue is at its peak.
On September 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops had allegedly captured over 5,300 square kilometers and over 220 settlements in Ukraine, including over 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements in September alone.
According to analysts, in reality, the Russians have captured only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements this year, while losing a net total of 20 settlements. Even when accounting for territories where Russian forces have merely penetrated but do not control, the total figure stands at 718.8 square kilometers, still significantly less than the Kremlin's claims.
Meanwhile, according to ISW estimates, Ukrainian forces have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements this year.
Analysts note that the exaggeration may also stem from a culture of constant lying prevalent within the Russian military. That is, it is not merely deliberate propaganda but also a systemic reporting problem.
According to the ISW, the reality is quite the opposite: Ukrainian forces have effectively held the strategic and operational initiative since late 2025. The Russians have made virtually no advances since March 2026, while Ukraine has carried out successful counterattacks in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman sectors.
As part of Operation Vivaldi, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already liberated new settlements in the northern Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are continuing their offensive, clearing the territory.
Earlier, the Third Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched Operation Vivaldi in the northern Donetsk region. At that time, reports emerged of the clearing of several settlements.
In particular, Ukrainian troops drove the Russians out of the village of Serednie without suffering any casualties, completely clearing and taking control of the settlement.
In addition, the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated an area larger than Zhytomyr. During the fighting, Ukrainian soldiers eliminated the camouflaged Russian troops and established a foothold for a further offensive in the region.
