Russia enters Phase Zero of preparations for possible war with NATO — ISW
Photo: Russia has entered the Phase Zero of preparations for a possible war with NATO (Getty Images)
Russia is intensifying its attacks against Europe and has already entered the Phase Zero of preparations for a possible war with NATO, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe.
Moscow has moved into the Phase Zero — the phase of creating informational and psychological conditions — to prepare for a possible war between NATO and Russia in the future.
“The December 17 event is the first instance ISW has observed of uniformed Russian personnel crossing over into NATO territory since the start of Russia’s Phase Zero effort in September 2025,” the Institute for the Study of War noted.
What happened on December 17
On December 17, Estonia reported a violation of the control line on the Narva River near the Vasknarva pier. The incident occurred on Wednesday morning and was recorded by video surveillance equipment belonging to border guards from the Eastern Prefecture.
According to the Estonian side, a hovercraft with Russian border guards approached the pier, after which three men in uniform went ashore and walked along the pier.
While moving along the pier, the Russian border guards crossed the control line from Russian territory into Estonian territory and then returned.
After that, they boarded the ship again and left for the Russian side. This happened before the Estonian authorities had time to question or detain them.
Several Estonian patrols responded promptly to the incident. According to Eerik Purgel, head of the Eastern Prefecture Border Guard Bureau, the border crossing was documented, an initial inspection was conducted on site, and official contact was established with the Russian border service to obtain explanations. A decision was also made to increase the number of patrols in the area.
