Russia de facto takes over Belarus - Experts expose plan against NATO
Illustrative photo: Russia uses Belarus to pressure NATO (GettyImages)
Violations of Polish airspace are part of the "Phase Zero" of preparation for war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia uses Belarus as a tool of pressure
ISW analysts concluded that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and is using its territory to achieve its own military-political goals. In particular, Moscow uses Belarus to conduct incursions into the airspace of NATO member states.
Violations of Polish airspace
According to ISW, on the night of January 30–31, Belarusian balloons entered Polish airspace illegally for the second time in 72 hours.
Polish Armed Forces operational command reported that military radars detected objects crossing the border from Belarus. Preliminary assessments indicate that these were indeed balloons.
In response, Polish authorities temporarily restricted airspace over the Podlaskie Voivodeship, which borders Belarus.
"Phase Zero" of war preparation
ISW emphasizes that these actions are part of the so-called "Phase Zero"- a stage of creating informational and psychological conditions for a possible future war between Russia and NATO.
Analysts believe Moscow is testing NATO's response, using Belarus as a springboard for provocations and hybrid operations against Western countries.
Russia and Belarus
Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia uses Belarusian territory for attacks on Ukraine and to pressure European countries. In particular, Shahed kamikaze drones are launched from Belarus, and strike coordination is conducted from there.
At the same time, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced the deployment of the Oreshnik missile system in the country, claiming it was a response to "Western aggression." He also assured that Minsk does not plan military actions against Western states.
Additionally, it was previously reported that Poland discovered fragments of two balloons carrying contraband cigarettes, likely coming from Belarus. The objects were found on the night of January 17 near Bialystok and Sokółka in the Podlaskie Voivodeship.
At least 59 meteorological balloons carrying contraband have entered Poland. Most incidents occurred in the Podlaskie and Lublin Voivodeships bordering Belarus.
Analysts also note that covert attacks on German infrastructure carried out by Russia could be preparation for a much wider “hot conflict,” during which the Kremlin may attempt to use hybrid warfare to hinder NATO forces from deploying.
