Russia chose Ukraine's Kostiantynivka for humanitarian mission: ISW explains why
Analysts reveal Kremlin's plan and explain why Russia chose Kostiantynivka specifically for a humanitarian mission (photo: Getty Images)
Russia is pushing to hold the next humanitarian mission specifically in Kostiantynivka because a temporary ceasefire would allow Russian forces to strengthen the southern flank of Ukraine's "fortress belt" and create conditions for renewed attempts to capture Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian representatives had given the United States a list of seven to eight occupied settlements where a humanitarian ceasefire would be appropriate, but the Kremlin rejected these options.
ISW believes Russia's proposals for a ceasefire in Kostiantynivka are an attempt to persuade the United States to accept at face value Moscow's fabricated picture of the situation along the front line.
At the same time, Russian forces will most likely use a local ceasefire in Kostiantynivka and its surrounding areas to build up troops and resources, as they did during the ceasefire in Oleshky.
ISW notes that the ceasefire in the Oleshky area covered a wider area along the Kherson front to ensure the safe evacuation of civilians.
A potential ceasefire in Kostiantynivka would likely also cover the surrounding areas.
"The Russian military command likely intends to use a localized ceasefire in the wider Kostiantynivka area to reinforce its positions in the area and then intensify attempts to seize the Fortress Belt from the south and southwest," analysts believe.
Meanwhile, the total number of Russian attacks in the Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka areas accounts for 80% of all Russian offensive activity against Ukraine's "fortress belt" since early October 2026, highlighting the importance of these directions to the Russian military command.
"Russian forces could use a temporary ceasefire in the wider Kostiantynivka direction to safely move heavy equipment closer to the frontline without the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes," the analysts note.
Humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka
During a meeting with the US president's special envoys on November 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin said a humanitarian mission could be organized in Kostiantynivka, following the example of the one held in Oleshky in the Kherson region.
The Kremlin said Russian forces were ready to begin demining Kostiantynivka. They allegedly need five days to complete the task.
Ukraine's Presidential Office said the Russians might be proposing a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka to rotate their troops, as they did in Oleshky.
Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said the Ukrainian side had no information about preparations for a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia wants to organize a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka to finally capture the city. There are almost no civilians left there, only military personnel.
