Russia capable of 500 drone strikes daily, intel says

According to military intelligence, as of June 15, Russia possessed over 6,000 strike UAVs of the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) and Harpia-A1 types, as well as more than 6,000 decoys (Gerbera).

According to estimates by the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Russia is currently capable of producing up to 170 drones per day — including both strike drones and decoys. However, by the end of this year, Moscow plans to increase daily production to 190 units.

At present, Ukrainian intelligence reports that the enemy can launch up to 300 strike drones in a single day. Including decoys, the total number of drones that can be deployed could reach up to 500 per day.

HUR notes that Russia has significantly ramped up production of strike drones and their decoys by establishing a closed-loop production cycle, which is almost fully independent of Iranian supplies.

"In addition, Russia is managing to circumvent international sanctions, although this has increased the production costs of Shahed-136-type UAVs. Nevertheless, Moscow continues to ramp up production of these drones, which are considered a relatively cost-effective weapon compared to high-precision missiles," the intelligence agency reported.

Thousand drones in one night?

In late May and early June, some military experts and media outlets speculated that Russia might be preparing to significantly escalate drone attacks on Ukraine. It was suggested online that the enemy might plan to launch as many as one thousand drones in a single strike.

Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, commented on these reports.

"There’s no need to spread panic among the public. Of course, we must prepare for an increase in drone numbers, as this trend is indeed emerging," Ihnat said.

As a reminder, on the night of June 9, Russia launched a record number of aerial targets against Ukraine — 499 in total, of which 479 were neutralized.