Russia alters tactics, attempts to breach Ukraine's air defense - ISW
Illustrative photo: Russian forces attempt to bypass and destroy Ukraine's air defense (Getty Images)
Since the beginning of April, Russia has reverted to its usual tactic of attacking with Shahed drones and has begun using a new scheme, according to the report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Following a temporary surge in long-range strike packages in mid-February and early March 2025, Russian forces returned in late March and early April to a more typical attack pattern across Ukraine.
Experts observed that Russian forces launched significantly more powerful strikes in mid-February and early March. However, in recent weeks, they have conducted attacks more similar to those seen in January and early February, though with fewer rockets.
The ISW noted that Russian forces did not conduct any missile strikes against Ukraine on April 7, the day after their largest strike of the past month on April 6. Instead, the aggressor resumed daily attacks.
Liberal ceasefire and population terror
Russian officials have continued to refuse participation in a potential temporary ceasefire between the US and Ukraine, which may have been proposed to President Vladimir Putin during a meeting on March 13 by US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.
Analysts suggest that the proposed cessation of long-range strikes on energy infrastructure would not require Russia to cease all drone and missile attacks. However, the overall ceasefire along the front line, as well as in the air and sea, would likely require Russia to stop all attacks against Ukraine.
The report suggests that Russian forces are likely prolonging ceasefire negotiations to continue securing victories along the front line and carrying out destructive long-range strikes on Ukrainian defensive, industrial, and civilian targets. It adds that Russia aims to terrorize the civilian population and weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future aggression.
New dangerous tactics
The Institute for the Study of War believes that in recent weeks, Russian forces have adjusted their long-range strike tactics. This is likely part of efforts to cause significant damage using strike packages similar to those used earlier in the year, as well as to intimidate Ukraine’s civilian population.
In late March and early April 2025, Ukrainian sources and the German newspaper BILD reported that before launching synchronized attacks with multiple drones, Russian forces keep long-range drone groups at high altitudes, several kilometers away from major Ukrainian cities and other targets.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces use Shahed drones in tightly packed groups to overload Ukrainian air defense systems. The enemy concentrates a group of 10-15 drones outside populated areas before striking them.
On April 6, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said Russian forces are constantly upgrading their Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, and strike tactics, making it harder for Ukrainian air defense forces to intercept them.
The Institute for the Study of War stated that previously, Russian forces launched Shaheds in waves, targeting different objectives every night. However, these efforts are now focused on using drones in tighter groups, indicating a new tactic that the Russian military believes will more effectively suppress the Ukrainian air defense system.
Russian airstrikes
In the night of April 12, Russian forces launched about 90 strike drones towards Ukraine from three directions.
A group of UAVs targeted Kyiv, causing fires and damaging residential infrastructure, as well as warehouse facilities.
Additionally, several Russian drones attacked Kharkiv, resulting in one man being injured.
