Putin plans to test UK's new prime minister, intelligence warns
Photo: Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
Britain and its NATO allies could face a direct challenge from Vladimir Putin within the next few months, as Russian intelligence is expected to test Prime Minister Andy Burnham's new government while US President Donald Trump remains focused on Iran, according to the Daily Mail.
Why now
According to intelligence sources, Putin will seek to exploit any perceived shift in Britain's resolve now that Burnham has replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister.
"There's now a strong belief Putin is preparing some sort of direct confrontation with NATO at some point over the next couple of months. There are a number of factors playing into this - the belief Trump is distracted by Iran and signs of division among the Ukrainian leadership," one intelligence source said.
How Russia is already changing its routes
The newspaper also reported that Moscow is already trying to stretch Britain's resources by rerouting its shadow fleet of oil tankers around the English Channel after Royal Marines intercepted one of the vessels last month.
The ships, which transport millions of barrels of oil in violation of Western sanctions, are now heading into the Atlantic via waters north of the Shetland Islands.
On Burnham's first Monday in office, a Russian frigate conducted live-fire exercises just 46 miles south of Plymouth.
Why this may be personal for Putin
The source also said Putin's personal frustration with the course of the war in Ukraine is another factor.
"There's a feeling that if he (Putin) can't somehow change the momentum on the battlefield, the war will be lost," the source said, adding that Britain's change of government could also prompt the Russian president to "test" Burnham and try to exploit any differences between the previous and current administrations.
The threat from Iran
The warnings come amid Iranian threats to strike British military bases, which Tehran considers "legitimate targets" because they allowed US bombers to operate from their territory during the recent escalation.
Britain permitted the US to use bases such as RAF Fairford only on the condition that the operations would be strictly "defensive." However, according to the newspaper, the threats from Iran are serious enough that British intelligence has launched a major covert operation to counter a potential attack on the base.
UK defense secretary responds
On Friday, newly appointed UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting discussed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and defense investment with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The same day, the UK Ministry of Defence said Britain was "ready 24/7" to defend itself against air and missile threats.
"Russia should be in no doubt about the resolve of this Government and this Prime Minister to stand against Russian aggression, not just in Ukraine, but also any aggression against the UK and our allies. Just this week we've invested over £700m in our advanced fighter jet programme and other technologies," Streeting said.
As previously reported, Western intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned of similar Kremlin plans. Russia is believed to be preparing false flag provocations against NATO member states in an attempt to undermine allies' trust in Ukraine.
Earlier, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski also warned that Russia was preparing new provocations and acts of sabotage against European countries, arguing that exposing such plans could help deter the Kremlin from taking aggressive action.
US media have also reported intelligence warnings that Russia could stage armed provocations against Poland, potentially involving drone strikes or a limited ground incursion.
